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Media impact switching surface during an infectious disease outbreak
There are many challenges to quantifying and evaluating the media impact on the control of emerging infectious diseases. We modeled such media impacts using a piecewise smooth function depending on both the case number and its rate of change. The proposed model was then converted into a switching sy...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group
2015
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4296304/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25592757 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep07838 |
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author | Xiao, Yanni Tang, Sanyi Wu, Jianhong |
author_facet | Xiao, Yanni Tang, Sanyi Wu, Jianhong |
author_sort | Xiao, Yanni |
collection | PubMed |
description | There are many challenges to quantifying and evaluating the media impact on the control of emerging infectious diseases. We modeled such media impacts using a piecewise smooth function depending on both the case number and its rate of change. The proposed model was then converted into a switching system, with the switching surface determined by a functional relationship between susceptible populations and different subgroups of infectives. By parameterizing the proposed model with the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza outbreak data in the Shaanxi province of China, we observed that media impact switched off almost as the epidemic peaked. Our analysis implies that media coverage significantly delayed the epidemic's peak and decreased the severity of the outbreak. Moreover, media impacts are not always effective in lowering the disease transmission during the entire outbreak, but switch on and off in a highly nonlinear fashion with the greatest effect during the early stage of the outbreak. The finding draws the attention to the important role of informing the public about ‘the rate of change of case numbers' rather than ‘the absolute number of cases' to alter behavioral changes, through a self-adaptive media impact switching on and off, for better control of disease transmission. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4296304 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2015 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-42963042015-01-26 Media impact switching surface during an infectious disease outbreak Xiao, Yanni Tang, Sanyi Wu, Jianhong Sci Rep Article There are many challenges to quantifying and evaluating the media impact on the control of emerging infectious diseases. We modeled such media impacts using a piecewise smooth function depending on both the case number and its rate of change. The proposed model was then converted into a switching system, with the switching surface determined by a functional relationship between susceptible populations and different subgroups of infectives. By parameterizing the proposed model with the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza outbreak data in the Shaanxi province of China, we observed that media impact switched off almost as the epidemic peaked. Our analysis implies that media coverage significantly delayed the epidemic's peak and decreased the severity of the outbreak. Moreover, media impacts are not always effective in lowering the disease transmission during the entire outbreak, but switch on and off in a highly nonlinear fashion with the greatest effect during the early stage of the outbreak. The finding draws the attention to the important role of informing the public about ‘the rate of change of case numbers' rather than ‘the absolute number of cases' to alter behavioral changes, through a self-adaptive media impact switching on and off, for better control of disease transmission. Nature Publishing Group 2015-01-16 /pmc/articles/PMC4296304/ /pubmed/25592757 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep07838 Text en Copyright © 2015, Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder in order to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
spellingShingle | Article Xiao, Yanni Tang, Sanyi Wu, Jianhong Media impact switching surface during an infectious disease outbreak |
title | Media impact switching surface during an infectious disease outbreak |
title_full | Media impact switching surface during an infectious disease outbreak |
title_fullStr | Media impact switching surface during an infectious disease outbreak |
title_full_unstemmed | Media impact switching surface during an infectious disease outbreak |
title_short | Media impact switching surface during an infectious disease outbreak |
title_sort | media impact switching surface during an infectious disease outbreak |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4296304/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25592757 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep07838 |
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