Body weight and risk of atrial fibrillation in 7,169 patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes; an observational study

BACKGROUND: Obesity, type 2 diabetes and atrial fibrillation (AF) are closely associated, but the underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. We aimed to explore associations between body mass index (BMI) or weight change with risk of AF in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: A total of 7,169 participations with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes were stratified according to baseline BMI, and after a second BMI measurement within 18 months, further grouped according to relative weight change as “weight gain” (>1 BMI unit), “stable weight” (+/− 1 BMI unit) and “weight loss” (<1 BMI unit). The mean follow-up period was 4.6 years, and the risk of AF was estimated using adjusted Cox regression models. RESULTS: Average age at diabetes diagnosis was 60 years and the patients were slightly obese (mean BMI 30.2 kg/m(2)). During follow-up, 287 patients developed incident AF, and those with overweight or obesity at baseline had 1.9-fold and 2.9-fold higher risk of AF, respectively, than those with normal BMI. The 14% of the patients with subsequent weight gain had 1.5-fold risk of AF compared with those with stable weight or weight loss. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes, baseline overweight and obesity, as well as modest weight increase during the first 18 months after diagnosis, were associated with a substantially increased risk of incident AF. Patients with type 2 diabetes may benefit from efforts to prevent weight gain in order to reduce the risk of incident AF. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01121315 ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12933-014-0170-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.