Cargando…
The Equiprobability Bias from a Mathematical and Psychological Perspective
The equiprobability bias (EB) is a tendency to believe that every process in which randomness is involved corresponds to a fair distribution, with equal probabilities for any possible outcome. The EB is known to affect both children and adults, and to increase with probability education. Because it...
Autores principales: | , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
University of Finance and Management in Warsaw
2014
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4310748/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25674192 http://dx.doi.org/10.5709/acp-0163-9 |
_version_ | 1782354911341576192 |
---|---|
author | Gauvrit, Nicolas Morsanyi, Kinga |
author_facet | Gauvrit, Nicolas Morsanyi, Kinga |
author_sort | Gauvrit, Nicolas |
collection | PubMed |
description | The equiprobability bias (EB) is a tendency to believe that every process in which randomness is involved corresponds to a fair distribution, with equal probabilities for any possible outcome. The EB is known to affect both children and adults, and to increase with probability education. Because it results in probability errors resistant to pedagogical interventions, it has been described as a deep misconception about randomness: the erroneous belief that randomness implies uniformity. In the present paper, we show that the EB is actually not the result of a conceptual error about the definition of randomness. On the contrary, the mathematical theory of randomness does imply uniformity. However, the EB is still a bias, because people tend to assume uniformity even in the case of events that are not random. The pervasiveness of the EB reveals a paradox: The combination of random processes is not necessarily random. The link between the EB and this paradox is discussed, and suggestions are made regarding educational design to overcome difficulties encountered by students as a consequence of the EB. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4310748 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2014 |
publisher | University of Finance and Management in Warsaw |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-43107482015-02-11 The Equiprobability Bias from a Mathematical and Psychological Perspective Gauvrit, Nicolas Morsanyi, Kinga Adv Cogn Psychol Research Article The equiprobability bias (EB) is a tendency to believe that every process in which randomness is involved corresponds to a fair distribution, with equal probabilities for any possible outcome. The EB is known to affect both children and adults, and to increase with probability education. Because it results in probability errors resistant to pedagogical interventions, it has been described as a deep misconception about randomness: the erroneous belief that randomness implies uniformity. In the present paper, we show that the EB is actually not the result of a conceptual error about the definition of randomness. On the contrary, the mathematical theory of randomness does imply uniformity. However, the EB is still a bias, because people tend to assume uniformity even in the case of events that are not random. The pervasiveness of the EB reveals a paradox: The combination of random processes is not necessarily random. The link between the EB and this paradox is discussed, and suggestions are made regarding educational design to overcome difficulties encountered by students as a consequence of the EB. University of Finance and Management in Warsaw 2014-12-31 /pmc/articles/PMC4310748/ /pubmed/25674192 http://dx.doi.org/10.5709/acp-0163-9 Text en Copyright: © 2014 University of Finance and Management in Warsaw http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Gauvrit, Nicolas Morsanyi, Kinga The Equiprobability Bias from a Mathematical and Psychological Perspective |
title | The Equiprobability Bias from a Mathematical and Psychological
Perspective |
title_full | The Equiprobability Bias from a Mathematical and Psychological
Perspective |
title_fullStr | The Equiprobability Bias from a Mathematical and Psychological
Perspective |
title_full_unstemmed | The Equiprobability Bias from a Mathematical and Psychological
Perspective |
title_short | The Equiprobability Bias from a Mathematical and Psychological
Perspective |
title_sort | equiprobability bias from a mathematical and psychological
perspective |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4310748/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25674192 http://dx.doi.org/10.5709/acp-0163-9 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT gauvritnicolas theequiprobabilitybiasfromamathematicalandpsychologicalperspective AT morsanyikinga theequiprobabilitybiasfromamathematicalandpsychologicalperspective AT gauvritnicolas equiprobabilitybiasfromamathematicalandpsychologicalperspective AT morsanyikinga equiprobabilitybiasfromamathematicalandpsychologicalperspective |