Use of personalized Dynamic Treatment Regimes (DTRs) and Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trials (SMARTs) in mental health studies

Dynamic treatment regimens (DTRs) are sequential decision rules tailored at each point where a clinical decision is made based on each patient’s time-varying characteristics and intermediate outcomes observed at earlier points in time. The complexity, patient heterogeneity, and chronicity of mental disorders call for learning optimal DTRs to dynamically adapt treatment to an individual’s response over time. The Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (SMARTs) design allows for estimating causal effects of DTRs. Modern statistical tools have been developed to optimize DTRs based on personalized variables and intermediate outcomes using rich data collected from SMARTs; these statistical methods can also be used to recommend tailoring variables for designing future SMART studies. This paper introduces DTRs and SMARTs using two examples in mental health studies, discusses two machine learning methods for estimating optimal DTR from SMARTs data, and demonstrates the performance of the statistical methods using simulated data.