Spatio-temporal epidemiology of hand, foot and mouth disease in Liaocheng City, North China

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has posed a notable threat to public health and become a public health priority in China. This study was based on the reported cases of HFMD between 2007 and 2011. A total of 34,176 HFMD cases were geo-coded at town level (n=134). Firstly, a descriptive analysis was conducted to evaluate the epidemic characteristics of HFMD. Then, the Kulldorff scan statistic based on a discrete Poisson model was used to detect spatial-temporal clusters. Spatial distribution of HFMD in Liaocheng City, China from 2007 to 2011 was mapped at town level in the aspects of crude incidence, excess hazard and spatial smoothed incidence. The spatial distribution of HFMD was non-random and clustered with a significant Moran’s I value every year. The local Moran’s I Z-score detected three significant spatial clusters for high incidence of HFMD. The space-time analysis identified one most likely cluster and twenty-five secondary clusters for high incidence of HFMD. We demonstrate evidence of the existence of statistically significant HFMD clusters in Liaocheng City. Our results provide better guidance for formulating regional prevention and control strategies.