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The Spatiotemporal Expansion of Human Rabies and Its Probable Explanation in Mainland China, 2004-2013

BACKGROUND: Human rabies is a significant public health concern in mainland China. However, the neglect of rabies expansion and scarce analyses of the dynamics have made the spatiotemporal spread pattern of human rabies and its determinants being poorly understood. METHODS: We collected geographic l...

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Autores principales: Yao, Hong-Wu, Yang, Yang, Liu, Kun, Li, Xin-Lou, Zuo, Shu-Qing, Sun, Ruo-Xi, Fang, Li-Qun, Cao, Wu-Chun
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4334667/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25692883
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003502
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author Yao, Hong-Wu
Yang, Yang
Liu, Kun
Li, Xin-Lou
Zuo, Shu-Qing
Sun, Ruo-Xi
Fang, Li-Qun
Cao, Wu-Chun
author_facet Yao, Hong-Wu
Yang, Yang
Liu, Kun
Li, Xin-Lou
Zuo, Shu-Qing
Sun, Ruo-Xi
Fang, Li-Qun
Cao, Wu-Chun
author_sort Yao, Hong-Wu
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Human rabies is a significant public health concern in mainland China. However, the neglect of rabies expansion and scarce analyses of the dynamics have made the spatiotemporal spread pattern of human rabies and its determinants being poorly understood. METHODS: We collected geographic locations and timeline of reported human rabies cases, rabies sequences and socioeconomic variables for the years 2004-2013, and integrated multidisciplinary approaches, including epidemiological characterization, hotspots identification, risk factors analysis and phylogeographic inference, to explore the spread pattern of human rabies in mainland China during the last decade. RESULTS: The results show that human rabies distribution and hotspots were expanding from southeastern regions to north or west regions, which could be associated with the evolution of the virus, especially the clade I-G. A Panel Poisson Regression analysis reveals that human rabies incidences had significant correlation with the education level, GDP per capita, temperature at one-month lag and canine rabies outbreak at two-month lag. CONCLUSIONS: The reduction in the overall human rabies incidence was accompanied by a westward and northward expansion of the circulating region in mainland China. Higher risk of human rabies was associated with lower level of education and economic status. New clades of rabies, especial Clade I-G, played an important role in recent spread. Our findings provide valuable information for rabies control and prevention in the future.
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spelling pubmed-43346672015-02-24 The Spatiotemporal Expansion of Human Rabies and Its Probable Explanation in Mainland China, 2004-2013 Yao, Hong-Wu Yang, Yang Liu, Kun Li, Xin-Lou Zuo, Shu-Qing Sun, Ruo-Xi Fang, Li-Qun Cao, Wu-Chun PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article BACKGROUND: Human rabies is a significant public health concern in mainland China. However, the neglect of rabies expansion and scarce analyses of the dynamics have made the spatiotemporal spread pattern of human rabies and its determinants being poorly understood. METHODS: We collected geographic locations and timeline of reported human rabies cases, rabies sequences and socioeconomic variables for the years 2004-2013, and integrated multidisciplinary approaches, including epidemiological characterization, hotspots identification, risk factors analysis and phylogeographic inference, to explore the spread pattern of human rabies in mainland China during the last decade. RESULTS: The results show that human rabies distribution and hotspots were expanding from southeastern regions to north or west regions, which could be associated with the evolution of the virus, especially the clade I-G. A Panel Poisson Regression analysis reveals that human rabies incidences had significant correlation with the education level, GDP per capita, temperature at one-month lag and canine rabies outbreak at two-month lag. CONCLUSIONS: The reduction in the overall human rabies incidence was accompanied by a westward and northward expansion of the circulating region in mainland China. Higher risk of human rabies was associated with lower level of education and economic status. New clades of rabies, especial Clade I-G, played an important role in recent spread. Our findings provide valuable information for rabies control and prevention in the future. Public Library of Science 2015-02-18 /pmc/articles/PMC4334667/ /pubmed/25692883 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003502 Text en © 2015 Yao et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Yao, Hong-Wu
Yang, Yang
Liu, Kun
Li, Xin-Lou
Zuo, Shu-Qing
Sun, Ruo-Xi
Fang, Li-Qun
Cao, Wu-Chun
The Spatiotemporal Expansion of Human Rabies and Its Probable Explanation in Mainland China, 2004-2013
title The Spatiotemporal Expansion of Human Rabies and Its Probable Explanation in Mainland China, 2004-2013
title_full The Spatiotemporal Expansion of Human Rabies and Its Probable Explanation in Mainland China, 2004-2013
title_fullStr The Spatiotemporal Expansion of Human Rabies and Its Probable Explanation in Mainland China, 2004-2013
title_full_unstemmed The Spatiotemporal Expansion of Human Rabies and Its Probable Explanation in Mainland China, 2004-2013
title_short The Spatiotemporal Expansion of Human Rabies and Its Probable Explanation in Mainland China, 2004-2013
title_sort spatiotemporal expansion of human rabies and its probable explanation in mainland china, 2004-2013
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4334667/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25692883
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003502
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