Controlling measles using supplemental immunization activities: A mathematical model to inform optimal policy

BACKGROUND: The Measles & Rubella Initiative, a broad consortium of global health agencies, has provided support to measles-burdened countries, focusing on sustaining high coverage of routine immunization of children and supplementing it with a second dose opportunity for measles vaccine through supplemental immunization activities (SIAs). We estimate optimal scheduling of SIAs in countries with the highest measles burden. METHODS: We develop an age-stratified dynamic compartmental model of measles transmission. We explore the frequency of SIAs in order to achieve measles control in selected countries and two Indian states with high measles burden. Specifically, we compute the maximum allowable time period between two consecutive SIAs to achieve measles control. RESULTS: Our analysis indicates that a single SIA will not control measles transmission in any of the countries with high measles burden. However, regular SIAs at high coverage levels are a viable strategy to prevent measles outbreaks. The periodicity of SIAs differs between countries and even within a single country, and is determined by population demographics and existing routine immunization coverage. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis can guide country policymakers deciding on the optimal scheduling of SIA campaigns and the best combination of routine and SIA vaccination to control measles.