Unemployment, public–sector health care expenditure and HIV mortality: An analysis of 74 countries, 1981–2009

BACKGROUND: The global economic downturn has been associated with increased unemployment and reduced public–sector expenditure on health care (PSEH). We determined the association between unemployment, PSEH and HIV mortality. METHODS: Data were obtained from the World Bank and the World Health Organisation (1981–2009). Multivariate regression analysis was implemented, controlling for country–specific demographics and infrastructure. Time–lag analyses and robustness–checks were performed. FINDINGS: Data were available for 74 countries (unemployment analysis) and 75 countries (PSEH analysis), equating to 2.19 billion and 2.22 billion people, respectively, as of 2009. A 1% increase in unemployment was associated with a significant increase in HIV mortality (men: 0.1861, 95% CI: 0.0977 to 0.2744, P = 0.0000, women: 0.0383, 95% CI: 0.0108 to 0.0657, P = 0.0064). A 1% increase in PSEH was associated with a significant decrease in HIV mortality (men: –0.5015, 95% CI: –0.7432 to –0.2598, P = 0.0001; women: –0.1562, 95% CI: –0.2404 to –0.0720, P = 0.0003). Time–lag analysis showed that significant changes in HIV mortality continued for up to 5 years following variations in both unemployment and PSEH. INTERPRETATION: Unemployment increases were associated with significant HIV mortality increases. PSEH increases were associated with reduced HIV mortality. The facilitation of access–to–care for the unemployed and policy interventions which aim to protect PSEH could contribute to improved HIV outcomes.