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Assessing the Direct Effects of the Ebola Outbreak on Life Expectancy in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea

Background: An EVD outbreak may reduce life expectancy directly (due to high mortality among EVD cases) and indirectly (e.g., due to lower utilization of healthcare and subsequent increases in non-EVD mortality). In this paper, we investigated the direct effects of EVD on life expectancy in Liberia,...

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Autores principales: Helleringer, Stephane, Noymer, Andrew
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4339316/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25737805
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/currents.outbreaks.01a99f8342b42a58d806d7d1749574ea
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author Helleringer, Stephane
Noymer, Andrew
author_facet Helleringer, Stephane
Noymer, Andrew
author_sort Helleringer, Stephane
collection PubMed
description Background: An EVD outbreak may reduce life expectancy directly (due to high mortality among EVD cases) and indirectly (e.g., due to lower utilization of healthcare and subsequent increases in non-EVD mortality). In this paper, we investigated the direct effects of EVD on life expectancy in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea (LSLG thereafter). Methods: We used data on EVD cases and deaths published in situation reports by the World Health Organization (WHO), as well as data on the age of EVD cases reported from patient datasets. We used data on non-EVD mortality from the most recent life tables published prior to the EVD outbreak. We then formulated three scenarios based on hypotheses about a) the extent of under-reporting of EVD cases and b) the EVD case fatality ratio. For each scenario, we re-estimated the number of EVD deaths in LSLG and we applied standard life table techniques to calculate life expectancy. Results: In Liberia, possible reductions in life expectancy resulting from EVD deaths ranged from 1.63 year (low EVD scenario) to 5.56 years (high EVD scenario), whereas in Sierra Leone, possible life expectancy declines ranged from 1.38 to 5.10 years. In Guinea, the direct effects of EVD on life expectancy were more limited (<1.20 year). Conclusions: Our high EVD scenario suggests that, due to EVD deaths, life expectancy may have declined in Liberia and Sierra Leone to levels these two countries had not experienced since 2001-2003, i.e., approximately the end of their civil wars. The total effects of EVD on life expectancy may however be larger due to possible concomitant increases in non-EVD mortality during the outbreak.
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spelling pubmed-43393162015-03-02 Assessing the Direct Effects of the Ebola Outbreak on Life Expectancy in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea Helleringer, Stephane Noymer, Andrew PLoS Curr Research Background: An EVD outbreak may reduce life expectancy directly (due to high mortality among EVD cases) and indirectly (e.g., due to lower utilization of healthcare and subsequent increases in non-EVD mortality). In this paper, we investigated the direct effects of EVD on life expectancy in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea (LSLG thereafter). Methods: We used data on EVD cases and deaths published in situation reports by the World Health Organization (WHO), as well as data on the age of EVD cases reported from patient datasets. We used data on non-EVD mortality from the most recent life tables published prior to the EVD outbreak. We then formulated three scenarios based on hypotheses about a) the extent of under-reporting of EVD cases and b) the EVD case fatality ratio. For each scenario, we re-estimated the number of EVD deaths in LSLG and we applied standard life table techniques to calculate life expectancy. Results: In Liberia, possible reductions in life expectancy resulting from EVD deaths ranged from 1.63 year (low EVD scenario) to 5.56 years (high EVD scenario), whereas in Sierra Leone, possible life expectancy declines ranged from 1.38 to 5.10 years. In Guinea, the direct effects of EVD on life expectancy were more limited (<1.20 year). Conclusions: Our high EVD scenario suggests that, due to EVD deaths, life expectancy may have declined in Liberia and Sierra Leone to levels these two countries had not experienced since 2001-2003, i.e., approximately the end of their civil wars. The total effects of EVD on life expectancy may however be larger due to possible concomitant increases in non-EVD mortality during the outbreak. Public Library of Science 2015-02-19 /pmc/articles/PMC4339316/ /pubmed/25737805 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/currents.outbreaks.01a99f8342b42a58d806d7d1749574ea Text en http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research
Helleringer, Stephane
Noymer, Andrew
Assessing the Direct Effects of the Ebola Outbreak on Life Expectancy in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea
title Assessing the Direct Effects of the Ebola Outbreak on Life Expectancy in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea
title_full Assessing the Direct Effects of the Ebola Outbreak on Life Expectancy in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea
title_fullStr Assessing the Direct Effects of the Ebola Outbreak on Life Expectancy in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea
title_full_unstemmed Assessing the Direct Effects of the Ebola Outbreak on Life Expectancy in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea
title_short Assessing the Direct Effects of the Ebola Outbreak on Life Expectancy in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea
title_sort assessing the direct effects of the ebola outbreak on life expectancy in liberia, sierra leone and guinea
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4339316/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25737805
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/currents.outbreaks.01a99f8342b42a58d806d7d1749574ea
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