Contralateral breast cancer risk in relation to tumor morphology and age—in which patients is preoperative MRI justified?

Identification of patients who are at increased risk for contralateral breast cancer is essential to determine which patients should be routinely screened for contralateral breast cancer using MRI. The aim of this study was to assess the association of age and tumor morphology with contralateral breast cancer incidence in a large, nationwide population-based study in the Netherlands. All patients with breast cancer stage I–III, diagnosed between 1989 and 2009, were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. The association between contralateral breast cancer risk with tumor morphology and age was assessed using competing-risk regression according to Fine & Gray. Overall, 194,898 patients were included. In multivariable analyses, lobular tumors were significantly associated with an increased risk of contralateral breast cancer within 6 months (cumulative incidence 1.9 %, subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) 1.17, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.06–1.30 compared with 1.3 % in ductal tumors, p = 0.002). Age was also associated with an increased risk of contralateral breast cancer within 6 months (SHR 2.34, 95 % CI 2.08–2.62, p < 0.002 for patients over the age of 75 as compared to patients younger than 50 years). The absolute risk of contralateral breast cancer within 6 months is only slightly increased in patients with a lobular tumor and older patients. In our view, this small increased risk does not justify standard use of preoperative MRI based on tumor morphology or age alone. We propose a more personalized strategy in which additional risk factors (family history, prognosis of primary tumor, and others) may play a role. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10549-015-3294-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.