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Beyond Chance? The Persistence of Performance in Online Poker
A major issue in the widespread controversy about the legality of poker and the appropriate taxation of winnings is whether poker should be considered a game of skill or a game of chance. To inform this debate we present an analysis into the role of skill in the performance of online poker players,...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2015
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4346402/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25729862 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0115479 |
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author | Potter van Loon, Rogier J. D. van den Assem, Martijn J. van Dolder, Dennie |
author_facet | Potter van Loon, Rogier J. D. van den Assem, Martijn J. van Dolder, Dennie |
author_sort | Potter van Loon, Rogier J. D. |
collection | PubMed |
description | A major issue in the widespread controversy about the legality of poker and the appropriate taxation of winnings is whether poker should be considered a game of skill or a game of chance. To inform this debate we present an analysis into the role of skill in the performance of online poker players, using a large database with hundreds of millions of player-hand observations from real money ring games at three different stakes levels. We find that players whose earlier profitability was in the top (bottom) deciles perform better (worse) and are substantially more likely to end up in the top (bottom) performance deciles of the following time period. Regression analyses of performance on historical performance and other skill-related proxies provide further evidence for persistence and predictability. Simulations point out that skill dominates chance when performance is measured over 1,500 or more hands of play. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4346402 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2015 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-43464022015-03-17 Beyond Chance? The Persistence of Performance in Online Poker Potter van Loon, Rogier J. D. van den Assem, Martijn J. van Dolder, Dennie PLoS One Research Article A major issue in the widespread controversy about the legality of poker and the appropriate taxation of winnings is whether poker should be considered a game of skill or a game of chance. To inform this debate we present an analysis into the role of skill in the performance of online poker players, using a large database with hundreds of millions of player-hand observations from real money ring games at three different stakes levels. We find that players whose earlier profitability was in the top (bottom) deciles perform better (worse) and are substantially more likely to end up in the top (bottom) performance deciles of the following time period. Regression analyses of performance on historical performance and other skill-related proxies provide further evidence for persistence and predictability. Simulations point out that skill dominates chance when performance is measured over 1,500 or more hands of play. Public Library of Science 2015-03-02 /pmc/articles/PMC4346402/ /pubmed/25729862 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0115479 Text en © 2015 Potter van Loon et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Potter van Loon, Rogier J. D. van den Assem, Martijn J. van Dolder, Dennie Beyond Chance? The Persistence of Performance in Online Poker |
title | Beyond Chance? The Persistence of Performance in Online Poker |
title_full | Beyond Chance? The Persistence of Performance in Online Poker |
title_fullStr | Beyond Chance? The Persistence of Performance in Online Poker |
title_full_unstemmed | Beyond Chance? The Persistence of Performance in Online Poker |
title_short | Beyond Chance? The Persistence of Performance in Online Poker |
title_sort | beyond chance? the persistence of performance in online poker |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4346402/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25729862 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0115479 |
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