Smoking Is Associated with an Increased Risk of Dementia: A Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies with Investigation of Potential Effect Modifiers

BACKGROUND: Previous studies showed inconsistent results on the association of smoking with all-cause dementia and vascular dementia (VaD), and are limited by inclusion of a small number of studies and unexplained heterogeneity. Our review aimed to assess the risk of all-cause dementia, Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and VaD associated with smoking, and to identify potential effect modifiers. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library and Psychinfo databases were searched to identify studies that provided risk estimates on smoking and incidence of dementia. A random-effects model was used to yield pooled results. Thirty-seven studies were included. Compared with never smokers, current smokers showed an increased risk of all-cause dementia (risk ratio (RR) 1.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18–1.45), AD (RR 1.40, 95% CI 1.13–1.73) and VaD (RR 1.38, 95% CI 1.15–1.66). For all-cause dementia, the risk increased by 34% for every 20 cigarettes per day (RR 1.34, 95% CI 1.25–1.43). Former smokers did not show an increased risk of all-cause dementia (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.96–1.06), AD (RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.96–1.13) and VaD (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.83–1.13). Subgroup analyses indicated that (1) the significantly increased risk of AD from current smoking was seen only in apolipoprotein E ε4 noncarriers; (2) current smokers aged 65 to 75 years at baseline showed increased risk of all-cause dementia and AD compared to those aged over 75 or under 65 years; and (3) sex, race, study location and diagnostic criteria difference in risk of dementia was not found. CONCLUSIONS: Smokers show an increased risk of dementia, and smoking cessation decreases the risk to that of never smokers. The increased risk of AD from smoking is more pronounced in apolipoprotein E ε4 noncarriers. Survival bias and competing risk reduce the risk of dementia from smoking at extreme age.