A simple prognostic index based on admission vital signs data among patients with sepsis in a resource-limited setting

INTRODUCTION: In sub-Saharan Africa, vital signs are a feasible option for monitoring critically ill patients. We assessed how admission vital signs data predict in-hospital mortality among patients with sepsis. In particular, we assessed whether vital signs data can be incorporated into a prognostic index with reduced segmentation in the values of included variables. METHODS: Subjects were patients with sepsis hospitalized in Uganda, who participated in two cohort studies. Using restricted cubic splines of admission vital signs data, we predicted probability of in-hospital death in the development cohort and used this information to construct a simple prognostic index. We assessed the performance of the index in a validation cohort and compared its performance to that of the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS). RESULTS: We included 317 patients (167 in the development cohort and 150 in the validation cohort). Based on how vital signs predicted mortality, we created a prognostic index giving a score of 1 for: respiratory rates ≥30 cycles/minute; pulse rates ≥100 beats/minute; mean arterial pressures ≥110/<70 mmHg; temperatures ≥38.6/<35.6°C; and presence of altered mental state defined as Glasgow coma score ≤14; 0 for all other values. The proposed index (maximum score = 5) predicted mortality comparably to MEWS. Patients scoring ≥3 on the index were 3.4-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6 to 7.3, P = 0.001) and 2.3-fold (95% CI 1.1 to 4.7, P = 0.031) as likely to die in hospital as those scoring 0 to 2 in the development and validation cohorts respectively; those scoring ≥5 on MEWS were 2.5-fold (95% CI 1.2 to 5.3, P = 0.017) and 1.8-fold (95% CI 0.74 to 4.2, P = 0.204) as likely to die as those scoring 0 to 4 in the development and validation cohorts respectively. CONCLUSION: Among patients with sepsis, a prognostic index incorporating admission vital signs data with reduced segmentation in the values of included variables adequately predicted mortality. Such an index may be more easily implemented when triaging acutely-ill patients. Future studies using a similar approach may develop indexes that can be used to monitor treatment among acutely-ill patients, especially in resource-limited settings.