Lipoprotein Particles and Incident Type 2 Diabetes in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

OBJECTIVE: In the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), we evaluated associations of baseline levels of a lipoprotein-based insulin resistance (IR) index (LP-IR), IR-related lipoprotein particles, mean particle sizes, and lipids, with incident type 2 diabetes, independent of confounders, glucose, insulin, and HOMA-IR. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Among 5,314 adults aged 45–84 years without baseline diabetes or cardiovascular disease, 656 cases of diabetes were identified during a mean follow-up of 7.7 years. Lipoprotein particle concentrations, size, and LP-IR were determined by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy of stored baseline plasma. Potential effect modification, by race/ethnicity, sex, baseline use of lipid-lowering medications or hormone therapy, or glucose strata (<90, 90–99, and ≥100 mg/dL), was also evaluated. RESULTS: Higher levels of LP-IR, large VLDL particles (VLDL-P), small LDL particles, triglycerides (TG), and TG–to–HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio and lower levels of large HDL particles, smaller HDL and LDL size, and larger VLDL size were significantly associated with incident diabetes adjusted for confounders and glucose or insulin. These also were similar by race/ethnicity, sex, and treatment group. Associations were similar for LP-IR, large VLDL-P, mean VLDL size, TG, and TG–to–HDL-C ratio; they persisted for LP-IR, large VLDL-P, or mean VLDL size adjusted for HOMA-IR or TG–to–HDL-C ratio and glucose but not for the TG–to–HDL-C ratio adjusted for LP-IR or for HOMA-IR or insulin if adjusted for LP-IR and glucose. CONCLUSIONS: Among ethnically diverse men and women, LP-IR, large VLDL-P, large VLDL size, TG, and TG–to–HDL-C ratio were associated with incident diabetes independent of established risk factors, glucose, insulin, or HOMA-IR, as well as the use of lipid-lowering medications or hormone therapy.