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Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model

Forecasting the outcomes of national elections has become established practice in several democracies. In the present paper, we develop an economic voting model for forecasting the future success of the Austrian ‘grand coalition’, i.e., the joint electoral success of the two mainstream parties SPOE...

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Autores principales: Aichholzer, Julian, Willmann, Johanna
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: North-Holland 2014
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4376048/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26339109
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.07.011
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author Aichholzer, Julian
Willmann, Johanna
author_facet Aichholzer, Julian
Willmann, Johanna
author_sort Aichholzer, Julian
collection PubMed
description Forecasting the outcomes of national elections has become established practice in several democracies. In the present paper, we develop an economic voting model for forecasting the future success of the Austrian ‘grand coalition’, i.e., the joint electoral success of the two mainstream parties SPOE and OEVP, at the 2013 Austrian Parliamentary Elections. Our main argument is that the success of both parties is strongly tied to the accomplishments of the Austrian system of corporatism, that is, the Social Partnership (Sozialpartnerschaft), in providing economic prosperity. Using data from Austrian national elections between 1953 and 2008 ([Formula: see text]), we rely on the following predictors in our forecasting model: (1) unemployment rates, (2) previous incumbency of the two parties, and (3) dealignment over time. We conclude that, in general, the two mainstream parties benefit considerably from low unemployment rates, and are weakened whenever they have previously formed a coalition government. Further, we show that they have gradually been losing a good share of their voter basis over recent decades.
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spelling pubmed-43760482015-09-01 Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model Aichholzer, Julian Willmann, Johanna Int J Forecast Article Forecasting the outcomes of national elections has become established practice in several democracies. In the present paper, we develop an economic voting model for forecasting the future success of the Austrian ‘grand coalition’, i.e., the joint electoral success of the two mainstream parties SPOE and OEVP, at the 2013 Austrian Parliamentary Elections. Our main argument is that the success of both parties is strongly tied to the accomplishments of the Austrian system of corporatism, that is, the Social Partnership (Sozialpartnerschaft), in providing economic prosperity. Using data from Austrian national elections between 1953 and 2008 ([Formula: see text]), we rely on the following predictors in our forecasting model: (1) unemployment rates, (2) previous incumbency of the two parties, and (3) dealignment over time. We conclude that, in general, the two mainstream parties benefit considerably from low unemployment rates, and are weakened whenever they have previously formed a coalition government. Further, we show that they have gradually been losing a good share of their voter basis over recent decades. North-Holland 2014 /pmc/articles/PMC4376048/ /pubmed/26339109 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.07.011 Text en © 2013 International Institute of Forecasters. Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which allows reusers to distribute, remix, adapt, and build upon the material in any medium or format, so long as attribution is given to the creator. The license allows for commercial use.
spellingShingle Article
Aichholzer, Julian
Willmann, Johanna
Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model
title Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model
title_full Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model
title_fullStr Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model
title_short Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model
title_sort forecasting austrian national elections: the grand coalition model
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4376048/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26339109
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.07.011
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