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Use and cumulation of evidence from modelling studies to inform policy on food taxes and subsidies: biting off more than we can chew?

BACKGROUND: Food tax-subsidy policies are proposed to hold promise for helping to produce healthier patterns of food purchasing and consumption at population level. Evidence for their effects derives largely from simulation studies that explore the potential effects of untried policies using a mathe...

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Autores principales: Shemilt, Ian, Marteau, Theresa M, Smith, Richard D, Ogilvie, David
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4381483/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25881318
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-015-1641-5
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author Shemilt, Ian
Marteau, Theresa M
Smith, Richard D
Ogilvie, David
author_facet Shemilt, Ian
Marteau, Theresa M
Smith, Richard D
Ogilvie, David
author_sort Shemilt, Ian
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Food tax-subsidy policies are proposed to hold promise for helping to produce healthier patterns of food purchasing and consumption at population level. Evidence for their effects derives largely from simulation studies that explore the potential effects of untried policies using a mathematical modelling framework. This paper provides a critique first of the nature of the evidence derived from such simulation studies, and second of the challenges of cumulating that evidence to inform public health policy. DISCUSSION: Effects estimated by simulation studies of food taxes and subsidies can be expected to diverge in potentially important ways from those that would accrue in practice because these models are simplified, typically static, representations of complex adaptive systems. The level of confidence that can be placed in modelled estimates of effects is correspondingly low, and the level of associated uncertainty is high. Moreover, evidence from food tax-subsidy simulation studies cannot meaningfully be cumulated using currently available quantitative evidence synthesis methods, to reduce uncertainty about effects. SUMMARY: Simulation studies are critical for the initial phases of an incremental research process, for drawing together diverse evidence and exploring potential longer-term effects. While simulation studies of food taxes and subsidies provide a valuable and necessary input to the formulation of public health policy in this area, they are unlikely to be sufficient, and policy makers should not place excessive reliance on evidence from such studies, either singly or cumulatively. To reflect known and unknown limitations of the models, results of such studies should be interpreted cautiously as tentative projections. Modelling studies should increasingly be integrated with more empirical studies of the effects of food tax and subsidy policies in practice.
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spelling pubmed-43814832015-04-02 Use and cumulation of evidence from modelling studies to inform policy on food taxes and subsidies: biting off more than we can chew? Shemilt, Ian Marteau, Theresa M Smith, Richard D Ogilvie, David BMC Public Health Debate BACKGROUND: Food tax-subsidy policies are proposed to hold promise for helping to produce healthier patterns of food purchasing and consumption at population level. Evidence for their effects derives largely from simulation studies that explore the potential effects of untried policies using a mathematical modelling framework. This paper provides a critique first of the nature of the evidence derived from such simulation studies, and second of the challenges of cumulating that evidence to inform public health policy. DISCUSSION: Effects estimated by simulation studies of food taxes and subsidies can be expected to diverge in potentially important ways from those that would accrue in practice because these models are simplified, typically static, representations of complex adaptive systems. The level of confidence that can be placed in modelled estimates of effects is correspondingly low, and the level of associated uncertainty is high. Moreover, evidence from food tax-subsidy simulation studies cannot meaningfully be cumulated using currently available quantitative evidence synthesis methods, to reduce uncertainty about effects. SUMMARY: Simulation studies are critical for the initial phases of an incremental research process, for drawing together diverse evidence and exploring potential longer-term effects. While simulation studies of food taxes and subsidies provide a valuable and necessary input to the formulation of public health policy in this area, they are unlikely to be sufficient, and policy makers should not place excessive reliance on evidence from such studies, either singly or cumulatively. To reflect known and unknown limitations of the models, results of such studies should be interpreted cautiously as tentative projections. Modelling studies should increasingly be integrated with more empirical studies of the effects of food tax and subsidy policies in practice. BioMed Central 2015-03-27 /pmc/articles/PMC4381483/ /pubmed/25881318 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-015-1641-5 Text en © Shemilt et al.; licensee BioMed Central. 2015 This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
spellingShingle Debate
Shemilt, Ian
Marteau, Theresa M
Smith, Richard D
Ogilvie, David
Use and cumulation of evidence from modelling studies to inform policy on food taxes and subsidies: biting off more than we can chew?
title Use and cumulation of evidence from modelling studies to inform policy on food taxes and subsidies: biting off more than we can chew?
title_full Use and cumulation of evidence from modelling studies to inform policy on food taxes and subsidies: biting off more than we can chew?
title_fullStr Use and cumulation of evidence from modelling studies to inform policy on food taxes and subsidies: biting off more than we can chew?
title_full_unstemmed Use and cumulation of evidence from modelling studies to inform policy on food taxes and subsidies: biting off more than we can chew?
title_short Use and cumulation of evidence from modelling studies to inform policy on food taxes and subsidies: biting off more than we can chew?
title_sort use and cumulation of evidence from modelling studies to inform policy on food taxes and subsidies: biting off more than we can chew?
topic Debate
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4381483/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25881318
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-015-1641-5
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