The South West Area Mesothelioma and Pemetrexed trial: a multicentre prospective observational study evaluating novel markers of chemotherapy response and prognostication

BACKGROUND: Robust markers that predict prognosis and detect early treatment response in malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) would enhance patient care. METHODS: Consecutive patients with MPM who were considered fit for first-line chemotherapy were prospectively recruited. Patients of similar performance status opting for best supportive care were included as a comparator group. Baseline and interval CT, PET-CT and serum markers (mesothelin, fibulin-3 and neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR)) were obtained, and patients followed up for a minimum 12 months. FINDINGS: Seventy-three patients were recruited (58 chemotherapy/15 comparator arm). Baseline TGV (total glycolytic volume on PET-CT) was an independent predictor of worse overall survival (OS) (P=0.001). Change in interval TGV(baseline/after two cycles of chemotherapy) did not predict OS or chemotherapy response on CT. Baseline NLR<4 was an independent predictor of better OS (median survival 453 (IQR 272–576) days vs NLR⩾4, 257 (IQR 147–490), P=0.002). Although baseline serum mesothelin did not predict OS, a falling level at 8 weeks significantly predicted longer time to progression (TTP) (P<0.001). INTERPRETATION: Neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio and baseline TGV predict prognosis in malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM), but PET-CT is unhelpful in monitoring chemotherapy response. Serum mesothelin is a useful early treatment response marker when measured serially during chemotherapy and may have a role in evaluating patients' treatment response.