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Shifts in the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Schistosomiasis: A Case Study in Anhui Province, China

BACKGROUND: The Chinese national surveillance system showed that the risk of Schistosoma japonicum infection fluctuated temporally. This dynamical change might indicate periodicity of the disease, and its understanding could significantly improve targeted interventions to reduce the burden of schist...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Hu, Yi, Li, Rui, Chen, Yue, Gao, Fenghua, Wang, Qizhi, Zhang, Shiqing, Zhang, Zhijie, Jiang, Qingwu
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4400088/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25881189
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003715
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author Hu, Yi
Li, Rui
Chen, Yue
Gao, Fenghua
Wang, Qizhi
Zhang, Shiqing
Zhang, Zhijie
Jiang, Qingwu
author_facet Hu, Yi
Li, Rui
Chen, Yue
Gao, Fenghua
Wang, Qizhi
Zhang, Shiqing
Zhang, Zhijie
Jiang, Qingwu
author_sort Hu, Yi
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: The Chinese national surveillance system showed that the risk of Schistosoma japonicum infection fluctuated temporally. This dynamical change might indicate periodicity of the disease, and its understanding could significantly improve targeted interventions to reduce the burden of schistosomiasis. The goal of this study was to investigate how the schistosomiasis risk varied temporally and spatially in recent years. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Parasitological data were obtained through repeated cross-sectional surveys that were carried out during 1997-2010 in Anhui Province, East China. A multivariate autoregressive model, combined with principal oscillation pattern (POP) analysis, was used to evaluate the spatio-temporal variation of schistosomiasis risk. Results showed that the temporal changes of schistosomiasis risk in the study area could be decomposed into two sustained damped oscillatory modes with estimated period of approximately 2.5 years. The POPs associated with these oscillatory components showed that the pattern near the Yangtze River varied markedly and that the disease risk appeared to evolve in a Southwest/Northeast orientation. The POP coefficients showed decreasing tendency until 2001, then increasing during 2002-2005 and decaying afterwards. CONCLUSION: The POP analysis characterized the variations of schistosomiasis risk over space and time and demonstrated that the disease mainly varied temporally along the Yangtze River. The schistosomiasis risk declined periodically with a temporal fluctuation. Whether it resulted from previous national control strategies on schistosomiasis needs further investigations.
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spelling pubmed-44000882015-04-21 Shifts in the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Schistosomiasis: A Case Study in Anhui Province, China Hu, Yi Li, Rui Chen, Yue Gao, Fenghua Wang, Qizhi Zhang, Shiqing Zhang, Zhijie Jiang, Qingwu PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article BACKGROUND: The Chinese national surveillance system showed that the risk of Schistosoma japonicum infection fluctuated temporally. This dynamical change might indicate periodicity of the disease, and its understanding could significantly improve targeted interventions to reduce the burden of schistosomiasis. The goal of this study was to investigate how the schistosomiasis risk varied temporally and spatially in recent years. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Parasitological data were obtained through repeated cross-sectional surveys that were carried out during 1997-2010 in Anhui Province, East China. A multivariate autoregressive model, combined with principal oscillation pattern (POP) analysis, was used to evaluate the spatio-temporal variation of schistosomiasis risk. Results showed that the temporal changes of schistosomiasis risk in the study area could be decomposed into two sustained damped oscillatory modes with estimated period of approximately 2.5 years. The POPs associated with these oscillatory components showed that the pattern near the Yangtze River varied markedly and that the disease risk appeared to evolve in a Southwest/Northeast orientation. The POP coefficients showed decreasing tendency until 2001, then increasing during 2002-2005 and decaying afterwards. CONCLUSION: The POP analysis characterized the variations of schistosomiasis risk over space and time and demonstrated that the disease mainly varied temporally along the Yangtze River. The schistosomiasis risk declined periodically with a temporal fluctuation. Whether it resulted from previous national control strategies on schistosomiasis needs further investigations. Public Library of Science 2015-04-16 /pmc/articles/PMC4400088/ /pubmed/25881189 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003715 Text en © 2015 Hu et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Hu, Yi
Li, Rui
Chen, Yue
Gao, Fenghua
Wang, Qizhi
Zhang, Shiqing
Zhang, Zhijie
Jiang, Qingwu
Shifts in the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Schistosomiasis: A Case Study in Anhui Province, China
title Shifts in the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Schistosomiasis: A Case Study in Anhui Province, China
title_full Shifts in the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Schistosomiasis: A Case Study in Anhui Province, China
title_fullStr Shifts in the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Schistosomiasis: A Case Study in Anhui Province, China
title_full_unstemmed Shifts in the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Schistosomiasis: A Case Study in Anhui Province, China
title_short Shifts in the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Schistosomiasis: A Case Study in Anhui Province, China
title_sort shifts in the spatiotemporal dynamics of schistosomiasis: a case study in anhui province, china
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4400088/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25881189
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003715
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