Cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in a cohort of 57,946 patients with type 2 diabetes: associations with renal function and cardiovascular risk factors

BACKGROUND: Diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are independent predictors of death and cardiovascular events and their concomitant prevalence has increased in recent years. The aim of this study was to characterize the effect of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and other factors on the risk of death and cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: A cohort of 57,946 patients with type 2 diabetes who were aged 20–89 years in 2000–2005 was identified from The Health Improvement Network, a UK primary care database. Incidence rates of death, myocardial infarction (MI), and ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (IS/TIA) were calculated overall and by eGFR category at baseline. eGFR was calculated using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) study equation. Death, MI and IS/TIA cases were detected using an automatic computer search and IS/TIA cases were further ascertained by manual review of medical records. Hazard ratios (HRs) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for death, MI, and IS/TIA associated with eGFR category and other factors were estimated using Cox regression models adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: Overall incidence rates of death (mean follow-up time of 6.76 years), MI (6.64 years) and IS/TIA (6.56 years) were 43.65, 9.26 and 10.39 cases per 1000 person-years, respectively. A low eGFR (15–29 mL/min) was associated with an increased risk of death (HR: 2.79; 95% CI: 2.57–3.03), MI (HR: 2.33; 95% CI: 1.89–2.87) and IS/TIA (HR: 1.77; 95% CI: 1.43–2.18) relative to eGFR ≥ 60 mL/min. Other predictors of death, MI and IS/TIA included age, longer duration of diabetes, poor control of diabetes, hyperlipidemia, smoking and a history of cardiovascular events. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with type 2 diabetes, management of cardiovascular risk factors and careful monitoring of eGFR may represent opportunities to reduce the risks of death, MI and IS/TIA. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12933-015-0204-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.