Prognostic Significance of Tumor Volume in Locally Recurrent Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Treated with Salvage Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy

INTRODUCTION: To evaluate the prognostic value of gross tumor volume (TV) in patients with locally recurrent, nonmetastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma. METHODS: Between 2001 and 2012, 291 consecutive patients with locally recurrent, nonmetastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma underwent salvage IMRT were retrospectively reviewed. The correlations between TV and recurrent T classification were analyzed. Survival analyses were performed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to identify cut-off point of TV. The Akaike information criterion and Harrell’s concordance index (c-index) were utilized to test the prognostic value. RESULTS: The median TV significantly increased with advancing recurrent T classification (P<0.001). The 5-year overall survival rate was 33.2% for the entire cohort. On multivariate analysis, TV was an independent negative prognostic factor for distant metastasis-free survival (hazard ratio =1.013, P =0.003), overall survival (hazard ratio = 1.015, P<0.001) and toxicity-related death (hazard ratio = 1.014, P<0.001). The 5-year overall survival rates were 63.1% and 20.8% for patients with a TV < 22 cm(3) and TV ≥22 cm(3), respectively (P < 0.001). In patient with TV <22 cm(3), locoregional failure is the leading cause of death. In patients with TV≥22 cm(3), distant metastasis rate is higher and occurred within short term after local recurrence; meanwhile, radiation-induced injuries became more common and led to half of deaths in this group. The Akaike information criterion and c-index analyses indicated that the predictive ability of recurrent T classification improved when combined with TV. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggests TV is a significant prognostic factor for predicting the distant metastasis, overall survival and toxicity-related death of patients with locally recurrent, nonmetastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma after salvage IMRT. TV should be considered when designing personalized salvage treatments for these patients. For patients with bulky local recurrent tumor, radiation may need to be de-emphasized in favor of systemic treatment or best supportive care.