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High Mean Water Vapour Pressure Promotes the Transmission of Bacillary Dysentery

Bacillary dysentery is an infectious disease caused by Shigella dysenteriae, which has a seasonal distribution. External environmental factors, including climate, play a significant role in its transmission. This paper identifies climate-related risk factors and their role in bacillary dysentery tra...

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Autores principales: Li, Guo-Zheng, Shao, Feng-Feng, Zhang, Hao, Zou, Chun-Pu, Li, Hui-Hui, Jin, Jue
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4422751/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25946209
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124478
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author Li, Guo-Zheng
Shao, Feng-Feng
Zhang, Hao
Zou, Chun-Pu
Li, Hui-Hui
Jin, Jue
author_facet Li, Guo-Zheng
Shao, Feng-Feng
Zhang, Hao
Zou, Chun-Pu
Li, Hui-Hui
Jin, Jue
author_sort Li, Guo-Zheng
collection PubMed
description Bacillary dysentery is an infectious disease caused by Shigella dysenteriae, which has a seasonal distribution. External environmental factors, including climate, play a significant role in its transmission. This paper identifies climate-related risk factors and their role in bacillary dysentery transmission. Harbin, in northeast China, with a temperate climate, and Quzhou, in southern China, with a subtropical climate, are chosen as the study locations. The least absolute shrinkage and selectionator operator is applied to select relevant climate factors involved in the transmission of bacillary dysentery. Based on the selected relevant climate factors and incidence rates, an AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is established successfully as a time series prediction model. The numerical results demonstrate that the mean water vapour pressure over the previous month results in a high relative risk for bacillary dysentery transmission in both cities, and the ARIMA model can successfully perform such a prediction. These results provide better explanations for the relationship between climate factors and bacillary dysentery transmission than those put forth in other studies that use only correlation coefficients or fitting models. The findings in this paper demonstrate that the mean water vapour pressure over the previous month is an important predictor for the transmission of bacillary dysentery.
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spelling pubmed-44227512015-05-12 High Mean Water Vapour Pressure Promotes the Transmission of Bacillary Dysentery Li, Guo-Zheng Shao, Feng-Feng Zhang, Hao Zou, Chun-Pu Li, Hui-Hui Jin, Jue PLoS One Research Article Bacillary dysentery is an infectious disease caused by Shigella dysenteriae, which has a seasonal distribution. External environmental factors, including climate, play a significant role in its transmission. This paper identifies climate-related risk factors and their role in bacillary dysentery transmission. Harbin, in northeast China, with a temperate climate, and Quzhou, in southern China, with a subtropical climate, are chosen as the study locations. The least absolute shrinkage and selectionator operator is applied to select relevant climate factors involved in the transmission of bacillary dysentery. Based on the selected relevant climate factors and incidence rates, an AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is established successfully as a time series prediction model. The numerical results demonstrate that the mean water vapour pressure over the previous month results in a high relative risk for bacillary dysentery transmission in both cities, and the ARIMA model can successfully perform such a prediction. These results provide better explanations for the relationship between climate factors and bacillary dysentery transmission than those put forth in other studies that use only correlation coefficients or fitting models. The findings in this paper demonstrate that the mean water vapour pressure over the previous month is an important predictor for the transmission of bacillary dysentery. Public Library of Science 2015-05-06 /pmc/articles/PMC4422751/ /pubmed/25946209 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124478 Text en © 2015 Li et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Li, Guo-Zheng
Shao, Feng-Feng
Zhang, Hao
Zou, Chun-Pu
Li, Hui-Hui
Jin, Jue
High Mean Water Vapour Pressure Promotes the Transmission of Bacillary Dysentery
title High Mean Water Vapour Pressure Promotes the Transmission of Bacillary Dysentery
title_full High Mean Water Vapour Pressure Promotes the Transmission of Bacillary Dysentery
title_fullStr High Mean Water Vapour Pressure Promotes the Transmission of Bacillary Dysentery
title_full_unstemmed High Mean Water Vapour Pressure Promotes the Transmission of Bacillary Dysentery
title_short High Mean Water Vapour Pressure Promotes the Transmission of Bacillary Dysentery
title_sort high mean water vapour pressure promotes the transmission of bacillary dysentery
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4422751/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25946209
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124478
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