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Kickoff to Conflict: A Sequence Analysis of Intra-State Conflict-Preceding Event Structures

While many studies have suggested or assumed that the periods preceding the onset of intra-state conflict are similar across time and space, few have empirically tested this proposition. Using the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System's domestic event data in Asia from 1998–2010, we subject th...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: D'Orazio, Vito, Yonamine, James E.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4424002/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25951105
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0122472
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author D'Orazio, Vito
Yonamine, James E.
author_facet D'Orazio, Vito
Yonamine, James E.
author_sort D'Orazio, Vito
collection PubMed
description While many studies have suggested or assumed that the periods preceding the onset of intra-state conflict are similar across time and space, few have empirically tested this proposition. Using the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System's domestic event data in Asia from 1998–2010, we subject this proposition to empirical analysis. We code the similarity of government-rebel interactions in sequences preceding the onset of intra-state conflict to those preceding further periods of peace using three different metrics: Euclidean, Levenshtein, and mutual information. These scores are then used as predictors in a bivariate logistic regression to forecast whether we are likely to observe conflict in neither, one, or both of the states. We find that our model accurately classifies cases where both sequences precede peace, but struggles to distinguish between cases in which one sequence escalates to conflict and where both sequences escalate to conflict. These findings empirically suggest that generalizable patterns exist between event sequences that precede peace.
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spelling pubmed-44240022015-05-13 Kickoff to Conflict: A Sequence Analysis of Intra-State Conflict-Preceding Event Structures D'Orazio, Vito Yonamine, James E. PLoS One Research Article While many studies have suggested or assumed that the periods preceding the onset of intra-state conflict are similar across time and space, few have empirically tested this proposition. Using the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System's domestic event data in Asia from 1998–2010, we subject this proposition to empirical analysis. We code the similarity of government-rebel interactions in sequences preceding the onset of intra-state conflict to those preceding further periods of peace using three different metrics: Euclidean, Levenshtein, and mutual information. These scores are then used as predictors in a bivariate logistic regression to forecast whether we are likely to observe conflict in neither, one, or both of the states. We find that our model accurately classifies cases where both sequences precede peace, but struggles to distinguish between cases in which one sequence escalates to conflict and where both sequences escalate to conflict. These findings empirically suggest that generalizable patterns exist between event sequences that precede peace. Public Library of Science 2015-05-07 /pmc/articles/PMC4424002/ /pubmed/25951105 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0122472 Text en © 2015 D'Orazio, Yonamine http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
D'Orazio, Vito
Yonamine, James E.
Kickoff to Conflict: A Sequence Analysis of Intra-State Conflict-Preceding Event Structures
title Kickoff to Conflict: A Sequence Analysis of Intra-State Conflict-Preceding Event Structures
title_full Kickoff to Conflict: A Sequence Analysis of Intra-State Conflict-Preceding Event Structures
title_fullStr Kickoff to Conflict: A Sequence Analysis of Intra-State Conflict-Preceding Event Structures
title_full_unstemmed Kickoff to Conflict: A Sequence Analysis of Intra-State Conflict-Preceding Event Structures
title_short Kickoff to Conflict: A Sequence Analysis of Intra-State Conflict-Preceding Event Structures
title_sort kickoff to conflict: a sequence analysis of intra-state conflict-preceding event structures
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4424002/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25951105
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0122472
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