Lesion regression rate based on RECIST: prediction of treatment outcome in patients with head and neck cancer treated with chemoradiotherapy compared with FDG PET-CT

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the lesion regression rate (ΔLR) based on the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) criteria could be used for the prediction of treatment outcome in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients treated with chemoradiotherapy (CRT) compared with FDG PET-CT. A total of 33 patients underwent MRI and PET-CT at pretreatment and at 8 weeks after CRT. We assessed the treatment outcome by analyzing the following parameters: the RECIST criteria, ΔLR, the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) criteria, and pretreatment SUV(max) of the primary tumor and node. The correlation between the analysis of the parameters and the results of the long-term follow-up of the patients was determined. The RECIST did not significantly correlate with locoregional control (LRC) or survival. The ΔLR was significantly lower for the lesions with locoregional failure (LRF) than for those with LRC. A threshold ΔLR of 48% revealed a sensitivity of 72.7% and specificity of 77.3% for the prediction of LRF. Progression-free survival (PFS) of patients with ΔLR ≥ 48% was significantly better than that of patients with ΔLR < 48% (P = 0.001), but not overall survival. There was a significant correlation between LRC and the EORTC (P = 0.02). The patients who achieved a complete response by the EORTC criteria showed significantly better PFS and overall survival (P = 0.01 and 0.04, respectively). The ΔLR was inferior to FDG PET-CT with respect to the prediction of patient survival; however, it may be useful for selecting patients in need of more aggressive monitoring after CRT.