Riverine tot-P loading and seawater concentrations in the Baltic Sea during the 1970s to 2000—transfer function modelling based on the total runoff

The signal of climate through the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) extends to westerly weather and to the Baltic Sea river runoff (BSRR) and further to the salinity and the marine fauna in the Baltic Sea. Our working hypothesis was that increased BSRR should also lead to increasing nutrient concentrations in the seawater. In rivers, transfer function (TF) models of the loading were constructed by time series of BSRR and tot-P concentrations. Based on the loading time series, we modelled, to our knowledge, first time, seawater tot-P concentrations in both the Northern Baltic Proper and in the Gulf of Bothnia, both on the surface (0–20 m) and deeper (21–70 m) waters. Our results further suggest a unifying mechanism by the BSRR that could explain most prominent ecological changes observed in the Baltic Sea during and after the 1970s. Such changes are eutrophication (as in this paper) and decreasing salinity and growth and reproduction of marine fauna, all of which have been separately described as due to different causes. BSRR is crucial when possible future developments of the Baltic Sea environment are considered because a general opinion exists that the rainfall (and the BSRR) is expected to increase in pace with proceeding climate change.