The prevalence, incidence, management and risks of atrial fibrillation in an elderly Chinese population: a prospective study

BACKGROUND: There is limited information on prevalent and incident atrial fibrillation in Chinese. We aimed to investigate the prevalence, incidence, management and risks of atrial fibrillation in an elderly Chinese population. METHODS: In a population—based prospective study in elderly (≥60 years) Chinese, we performed cardiovascular health examinations including a 12-lead electrocardiogram at baseline in 3,922 participants and biennially during follow-up in 2,017 participants. We collected information on vital status during the whole follow-up period. RESULTS: The baseline prevalence of atrial fibrillation was 2.0 % (n = 34) in 1718 men and 1.6 % (n = 36) in 2204 women. During a median 3.8 years of follow-up, the incidence rate of atrial fibrillation (n = 34) was 4.9 per 1000 person-years (95 % confidence interval [CI], 3.4–6.9). In univariate analysis, both the prevalence and incidence of atrial fibrillation were higher with age advancing (P < 0.0001) and in the presence of coronary heart disease (P ≤ 0.02). Of the 104 prevalent and incident cases of atrial fibrillation, only 1 (1.0 %) received anticoagulant therapy (warfarin). These patients with atrial fibrillation, compared with those with sinus rhythm, had significantly higher risks of all-cause (n = 261, hazard ratio [HR] 1.87, 95 % CI, 1.09–3.20, P = 0.02), cardiovascular (n = 136, HR 3.78, 95 % CI 2.17–6.58, P < 0.0001) and stroke mortality (n = 44, HR 6.31, 95 % CI 2.81–14.19, P = 0.0003). CONCLUSIONS: Atrial fibrillation was relatively frequent in elderly Chinese, poorly managed and associated with higher risks of mortality.