The possibility of lifestyle and biological risk markers to predict morbidity and mortality in a cohort of young men after 26 years follow-up

OBJECTIVES: To study the association between lifestyle and biological risk markers measured at one occasion, morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer, and morbidity from diabetes approximately 26 years later. DESIGN: A follow-up study of a cohort of men, 33–42 years old at baseline. SETTING: Primary healthcare centre in Sweden. PARTICIPANTS: All 757 men, living in the community of Habo in Sweden in 1985, and all 652 of these participating in a health examination in 1985–1987. INTERVENTIONS: Health profile and a health dialogue with a nurse. A doctor invited the high-risk group to further dialogue and examination. Intervention programmes were carried out in the primary healthcare centre and in cooperation with local associations. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: CVD and cancer diagnoses from the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare. Data from pharmacy registers of sold drugs concerning diabetes mellitus. RESULTS: The participants were divided in three groups based on summarised risk points from lifestyle (smoking, physical activity, alcohol consumption) and biological risk markers (body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, serum cholesterol) selected from the health profile. Comparisons were done between these groups. The group with the lowest summarised total risk points had a significantly lower risk for CVD and cancer compared with the group with the highest summarised risk points. The group with the lowest risk points concerning lifestyle had a significantly lower risk for CVD, and the group with lowest risk points for biological risk markers had a significantly lower risk for both CVD and cancer compared with the groups with the highest risk points. Smoking and serum cholesterol were the most important risk factors. In association to diabetes, BMI and smoking were the most important risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors measured on one occasion seemed to be able to predict CVD, cancer and diabetes 26 years later.