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Mapping the zoonotic niche of Marburg virus disease in Africa

BACKGROUND: Marburg virus disease (MVD) describes a viral haemorrhagic fever responsible for a number of outbreaks across eastern and southern Africa. It is a zoonotic disease, with the Egyptian rousette (Rousettus aegyptiacus) identified as a reservoir host. Infection is suspected to result from co...

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Autores principales: Pigott, David M., Golding, Nick, Mylne, Adrian, Huang, Zhi, Weiss, Daniel J., Brady, Oliver J., Kraemer, Moritz U. G., Hay, Simon I.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Oxford University Press 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4447827/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25820266
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/trv024
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author Pigott, David M.
Golding, Nick
Mylne, Adrian
Huang, Zhi
Weiss, Daniel J.
Brady, Oliver J.
Kraemer, Moritz U. G.
Hay, Simon I.
author_facet Pigott, David M.
Golding, Nick
Mylne, Adrian
Huang, Zhi
Weiss, Daniel J.
Brady, Oliver J.
Kraemer, Moritz U. G.
Hay, Simon I.
author_sort Pigott, David M.
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Marburg virus disease (MVD) describes a viral haemorrhagic fever responsible for a number of outbreaks across eastern and southern Africa. It is a zoonotic disease, with the Egyptian rousette (Rousettus aegyptiacus) identified as a reservoir host. Infection is suspected to result from contact between this reservoir and human populations, with occasional secondary human-to-human transmission. METHODS: Index cases of previous human outbreaks were identified and reports of infection in animals recorded. These data were modelled within a species distribution modelling framework in order to generate a probabilistic surface of zoonotic transmission potential of MVD across sub-Saharan Africa. RESULTS: Areas suitable for zoonotic transmission of MVD are predicted in 27 countries inhabited by 105 million people. Regions are suggested for exploratory surveys to better characterise the geographical distribution of the disease, as well as for directing efforts to communicate the risk of practices enhancing zoonotic contact. CONCLUSIONS: These maps can inform future contingency and preparedness strategies for MVD control, especially where secondary transmission is a risk. Coupling this risk map with patient travel histories could be used to guide the differential diagnosis of highly transmissible pathogens, enabling more rapid response to outbreaks of haemorrhagic fever.
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spelling pubmed-44478272015-06-15 Mapping the zoonotic niche of Marburg virus disease in Africa Pigott, David M. Golding, Nick Mylne, Adrian Huang, Zhi Weiss, Daniel J. Brady, Oliver J. Kraemer, Moritz U. G. Hay, Simon I. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg Original Articles BACKGROUND: Marburg virus disease (MVD) describes a viral haemorrhagic fever responsible for a number of outbreaks across eastern and southern Africa. It is a zoonotic disease, with the Egyptian rousette (Rousettus aegyptiacus) identified as a reservoir host. Infection is suspected to result from contact between this reservoir and human populations, with occasional secondary human-to-human transmission. METHODS: Index cases of previous human outbreaks were identified and reports of infection in animals recorded. These data were modelled within a species distribution modelling framework in order to generate a probabilistic surface of zoonotic transmission potential of MVD across sub-Saharan Africa. RESULTS: Areas suitable for zoonotic transmission of MVD are predicted in 27 countries inhabited by 105 million people. Regions are suggested for exploratory surveys to better characterise the geographical distribution of the disease, as well as for directing efforts to communicate the risk of practices enhancing zoonotic contact. CONCLUSIONS: These maps can inform future contingency and preparedness strategies for MVD control, especially where secondary transmission is a risk. Coupling this risk map with patient travel histories could be used to guide the differential diagnosis of highly transmissible pathogens, enabling more rapid response to outbreaks of haemorrhagic fever. Oxford University Press 2015-06 2015-03-27 /pmc/articles/PMC4447827/ /pubmed/25820266 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/trv024 Text en © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Original Articles
Pigott, David M.
Golding, Nick
Mylne, Adrian
Huang, Zhi
Weiss, Daniel J.
Brady, Oliver J.
Kraemer, Moritz U. G.
Hay, Simon I.
Mapping the zoonotic niche of Marburg virus disease in Africa
title Mapping the zoonotic niche of Marburg virus disease in Africa
title_full Mapping the zoonotic niche of Marburg virus disease in Africa
title_fullStr Mapping the zoonotic niche of Marburg virus disease in Africa
title_full_unstemmed Mapping the zoonotic niche of Marburg virus disease in Africa
title_short Mapping the zoonotic niche of Marburg virus disease in Africa
title_sort mapping the zoonotic niche of marburg virus disease in africa
topic Original Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4447827/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25820266
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/trstmh/trv024
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