Cargando…

Spatial and temporal variation in harvest probabilities for American black duck

Assessing spatial variation in waterfowl harvest probabilities from banding data is challenging because reporting and recovery probabilities have distinct spatial patterns that covary temporally with harvesting regulations, hunter effort, and reporting methods. We analyzed direct band recovery data...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Roy, Christian, Cumming, Steven G, McIntire, Eliot JB
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BlackWell Publishing Ltd 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4449754/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26045951
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.1484
_version_ 1782373905359437824
author Roy, Christian
Cumming, Steven G
McIntire, Eliot JB
author_facet Roy, Christian
Cumming, Steven G
McIntire, Eliot JB
author_sort Roy, Christian
collection PubMed
description Assessing spatial variation in waterfowl harvest probabilities from banding data is challenging because reporting and recovery probabilities have distinct spatial patterns that covary temporally with harvesting regulations, hunter effort, and reporting methods. We analyzed direct band recovery data from American black ducks banded on the Canadian breeding grounds from 1970 through 2010. Data were registered to a 1-degree grid and analyzed using hierarchical logistic regression models with spatially correlated errors to estimate the annual probabilities of band recovery and the proportion of individuals recovered in Canada. Probability of harvest was estimated from these values, in combination with independent estimates of reporting probabilities in Canada and the USA. Model covariates included estimates of hunting effort and factors for harvest regulation and band reporting methods. Both the band recovery processes and the proportion of individuals recovered in Canada had significant spatial structure. Recovery probabilities were highest in southern Ontario, along the Saint Lawrence River in Quebec, and in Nova Scotia. Black ducks breeding in Nova Scotia and southern Quebec were harvested predominantly in Canada. Recovery probabilities for juveniles were correlated with hunter effort, while the adult recoveries were weakly correlated with the implementation of stricter harvest regulations in the early 1980s. Mean harvest probability decreased in the northern portion of the survey area but remained stable or even increased in the south. Harvest probabilities for juveniles in 2010 exceeded 20% in southern Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. Our results demonstrate fine-scale variation in harvest probabilities for black duck on the Canadian breeding ground. In particular, harvest probabilities should be closely monitored along the Saint Lawrence River system and in the Atlantic provinces to avoid overexploitation.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-4449754
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2015
publisher BlackWell Publishing Ltd
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-44497542015-06-04 Spatial and temporal variation in harvest probabilities for American black duck Roy, Christian Cumming, Steven G McIntire, Eliot JB Ecol Evol Original Research Assessing spatial variation in waterfowl harvest probabilities from banding data is challenging because reporting and recovery probabilities have distinct spatial patterns that covary temporally with harvesting regulations, hunter effort, and reporting methods. We analyzed direct band recovery data from American black ducks banded on the Canadian breeding grounds from 1970 through 2010. Data were registered to a 1-degree grid and analyzed using hierarchical logistic regression models with spatially correlated errors to estimate the annual probabilities of band recovery and the proportion of individuals recovered in Canada. Probability of harvest was estimated from these values, in combination with independent estimates of reporting probabilities in Canada and the USA. Model covariates included estimates of hunting effort and factors for harvest regulation and band reporting methods. Both the band recovery processes and the proportion of individuals recovered in Canada had significant spatial structure. Recovery probabilities were highest in southern Ontario, along the Saint Lawrence River in Quebec, and in Nova Scotia. Black ducks breeding in Nova Scotia and southern Quebec were harvested predominantly in Canada. Recovery probabilities for juveniles were correlated with hunter effort, while the adult recoveries were weakly correlated with the implementation of stricter harvest regulations in the early 1980s. Mean harvest probability decreased in the northern portion of the survey area but remained stable or even increased in the south. Harvest probabilities for juveniles in 2010 exceeded 20% in southern Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. Our results demonstrate fine-scale variation in harvest probabilities for black duck on the Canadian breeding ground. In particular, harvest probabilities should be closely monitored along the Saint Lawrence River system and in the Atlantic provinces to avoid overexploitation. BlackWell Publishing Ltd 2015-05 2015-04-16 /pmc/articles/PMC4449754/ /pubmed/26045951 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.1484 Text en © 2015 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Original Research
Roy, Christian
Cumming, Steven G
McIntire, Eliot JB
Spatial and temporal variation in harvest probabilities for American black duck
title Spatial and temporal variation in harvest probabilities for American black duck
title_full Spatial and temporal variation in harvest probabilities for American black duck
title_fullStr Spatial and temporal variation in harvest probabilities for American black duck
title_full_unstemmed Spatial and temporal variation in harvest probabilities for American black duck
title_short Spatial and temporal variation in harvest probabilities for American black duck
title_sort spatial and temporal variation in harvest probabilities for american black duck
topic Original Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4449754/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26045951
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.1484
work_keys_str_mv AT roychristian spatialandtemporalvariationinharvestprobabilitiesforamericanblackduck
AT cummingsteveng spatialandtemporalvariationinharvestprobabilitiesforamericanblackduck
AT mcintireeliotjb spatialandtemporalvariationinharvestprobabilitiesforamericanblackduck