Comparing the skill of different reanalyses and their ensembles as predictors for daily air temperature on a glaciated mountain (Peru)

It is well known from previous research that significant differences exist amongst reanalysis products from different institutions. Here, we compare the skill of NCEP-R (reanalyses by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NCEP), ERA-int (the European Centre of Medium-range Weather Forecasts Interim), JCDAS (the Japanese Meteorological Agency Climate Data Assimilation System reanalyses), MERRA (the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration), CFSR (the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis by the NCEP), and ensembles thereof as predictors for daily air temperature on a high-altitude glaciated mountain site in Peru. We employ a skill estimation method especially suited for short-term, high-resolution time series. First, the predictors are preprocessed using simple linear regression models calibrated individually for each calendar month. Then, cross-validation under consideration of persistence in the time series is performed. This way, the skill of the reanalyses with focus on intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability is quantified. The most important findings are: (1) ERA-int, CFSR, and MERRA show considerably higher skill than NCEP-R and JCDAS; (2) differences in skill appear especially during dry and intermediate seasons in the Cordillera Blanca; (3) the optimum horizontal scales largely vary between the different reanalyses, and horizontal grid resolutions of the reanalyses are poor indicators of this optimum scale; and (4) using reanalysis ensembles efficiently improves the performance of individual reanalyses.