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Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt

Radiant spring frosts occurring during reproductive developmental stages can result in catastrophic yield loss for wheat producers. To better understand the spatial and temporal variability of frost, the occurrence and impact of frost events on rain-fed wheat production was estimated across the Aust...

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Autores principales: Zheng, Bangyou, Chapman, Scott C., Christopher, Jack T., Frederiks, Troy M., Chenu, Karine
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Oxford University Press 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4463805/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25922479
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jxb/erv163
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author Zheng, Bangyou
Chapman, Scott C.
Christopher, Jack T.
Frederiks, Troy M.
Chenu, Karine
author_facet Zheng, Bangyou
Chapman, Scott C.
Christopher, Jack T.
Frederiks, Troy M.
Chenu, Karine
author_sort Zheng, Bangyou
collection PubMed
description Radiant spring frosts occurring during reproductive developmental stages can result in catastrophic yield loss for wheat producers. To better understand the spatial and temporal variability of frost, the occurrence and impact of frost events on rain-fed wheat production was estimated across the Australian wheatbelt for 1957–2013 using a 0.05 ° gridded weather data set. Simulated yield outcomes at 60 key locations were compared with those for virtual genotypes with different levels of frost tolerance. Over the last six decades, more frost events, later last frost day, and a significant increase in frost impact on yield were found in certain regions of the Australian wheatbelt, in particular in the South-East and West. Increasing trends in frost-related yield losses were simulated in regions where no significant trend of frost occurrence was observed, due to higher mean temperatures accelerating crop development and causing sensitive post-heading stages to occur earlier, during the frost risk period. Simulations indicated that with frost-tolerant lines the mean national yield could be improved by up to 20% through (i) reduced frost damage (~10% improvement) and (ii) the ability to use earlier sowing dates (adding a further 10% improvement). In the simulations, genotypes with an improved frost tolerance to temperatures 1 °C lower than the current 0 °C reference provided substantial benefit in most cropping regions, while greater tolerance (to 3 °C lower temperatures) brought further benefits in the East. The results indicate that breeding for improved reproductive frost tolerance should remain a priority for the Australian wheat industry, despite warming climates.
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spelling pubmed-44638052015-06-17 Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt Zheng, Bangyou Chapman, Scott C. Christopher, Jack T. Frederiks, Troy M. Chenu, Karine J Exp Bot Research Paper Radiant spring frosts occurring during reproductive developmental stages can result in catastrophic yield loss for wheat producers. To better understand the spatial and temporal variability of frost, the occurrence and impact of frost events on rain-fed wheat production was estimated across the Australian wheatbelt for 1957–2013 using a 0.05 ° gridded weather data set. Simulated yield outcomes at 60 key locations were compared with those for virtual genotypes with different levels of frost tolerance. Over the last six decades, more frost events, later last frost day, and a significant increase in frost impact on yield were found in certain regions of the Australian wheatbelt, in particular in the South-East and West. Increasing trends in frost-related yield losses were simulated in regions where no significant trend of frost occurrence was observed, due to higher mean temperatures accelerating crop development and causing sensitive post-heading stages to occur earlier, during the frost risk period. Simulations indicated that with frost-tolerant lines the mean national yield could be improved by up to 20% through (i) reduced frost damage (~10% improvement) and (ii) the ability to use earlier sowing dates (adding a further 10% improvement). In the simulations, genotypes with an improved frost tolerance to temperatures 1 °C lower than the current 0 °C reference provided substantial benefit in most cropping regions, while greater tolerance (to 3 °C lower temperatures) brought further benefits in the East. The results indicate that breeding for improved reproductive frost tolerance should remain a priority for the Australian wheat industry, despite warming climates. Oxford University Press 2015-06 2015-04-28 /pmc/articles/PMC4463805/ /pubmed/25922479 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jxb/erv163 Text en © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0 This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research Paper
Zheng, Bangyou
Chapman, Scott C.
Christopher, Jack T.
Frederiks, Troy M.
Chenu, Karine
Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt
title Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt
title_full Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt
title_fullStr Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt
title_full_unstemmed Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt
title_short Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt
title_sort frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the australian wheatbelt
topic Research Paper
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4463805/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25922479
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jxb/erv163
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