Template CoMFA Generates Single 3D-QSAR Models that, for Twelve of Twelve Biological Targets, Predict All ChEMBL-Tabulated Affinities

The possible applicability of the new template CoMFA methodology to the prediction of unknown biological affinities was explored. For twelve selected targets, all ChEMBL binding affinities were used as training and/or prediction sets, making these 3D-QSAR models the most structurally diverse and among the largest ever. For six of the targets, X-ray crystallographic structures provided the aligned templates required as input (BACE, cdk1, chk2, carbonic anhydrase-II, factor Xa, PTP1B). For all targets including the other six (hERG, cyp3A4 binding, endocrine receptor, COX2, D2, and GABAa), six modeling protocols applied to only three familiar ligands provided six alternate sets of aligned templates. The statistical qualities of the six or seven models thus resulting for each individual target were remarkably similar. Also, perhaps unexpectedly, the standard deviations of the errors of cross-validation predictions accompanying model derivations were indistinguishable from the standard deviations of the errors of truly prospective predictions. These standard deviations of prediction ranged from 0.70 to 1.14 log units and averaged 0.89 (8x in concentration units) over the twelve targets, representing an average reduction of almost 50% in uncertainty, compared to the null hypothesis of “predicting” an unknown affinity to be the average of known affinities. These errors of prediction are similar to those from Tanimoto coefficients of fragment occurrence frequencies, the predominant approach to side effect prediction, which template CoMFA can augment by identifying additional active structural classes, by improving Tanimoto-only predictions, by yielding quantitative predictions of potency, and by providing interpretable guidance for avoiding or enhancing any specific target response.