The proportion of postmenopausal breast cancer cases in the Netherlands attributable to lifestyle-related risk factors

We aimed to estimate the proportion of Dutch postmenopausal breast cancer cases in 2010 that is attributable to lifestyle-related risk factors. We calculated population attributable fractions (PAFs) of potentially modifiable risk factors for postmenopausal breast cancer in Dutch women aged >50 in 2010. First, age-specific PAFs were calculated for each risk factor, based on their relative risks for postmenopausal breast cancer (from meta-analyses) and age-specific prevalence in the population (from national surveys) around the year 2000, assuming a latency period of 10 years. To obtain the overall PAF, age-specific PAFs were summed in a weighted manner, using the age-specific breast cancer incidence rates (2010) as weights. 95 % confidence intervals for PAF estimates were derived by Monte Carlo simulations. Of Dutch women >40 years, in 2000, 51 % were overweight/obese, 55 % physically inactive (<5 days/week 30 min activity), 75 % regularly consumed alcohol, 42 % ever smoked cigarettes and 79 % had a low-fibre intake (<3.4 g/1000 kJ/day). These factors combined had a PAF of 25.7 % (95 % CI 24.2–27.2), corresponding to 2,665 Dutch postmenopausal breast cancer cases in 2010. PAFs were 8.8 % (95 % CI 6.3–11.3) for overweight/obesity, 6.6 % (95 % CI 5.2–8.0) for alcohol consumption, 5.5 % (95 % CI 4.0–7.0) for physical inactivity, 4.6 % (95 % CI 3.3–6.0) for smoking and 3.2 % (95 % CI 1.6–4.8) for low-fibre intake. Our findings imply that modifiable risk factors are jointly responsible for approximately one out of four Dutch postmenopausal breast cancer cases. This suggests that incidence rates can be lowered substantially by living a more healthy lifestyle. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10549-015-3447-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.