Natural History of Multiple System Atrophy in North America: A Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Multiple system atrophy (MSA) is a rare, fatal neurodegenerative disorder exhibiting a combination of parkinsonism and/or cerebellar ataxia with autonomic failure. We report the first North American prospective natural history study of MSA, and the effects of phenotype and autonomic failure on prognosis. METHODS: 175 subjects with probable MSA, both MSA-P and MSA-C, were recruited and prospectively followed for 5 years with evaluations every 6 months in 12 centers. Natural history was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. We compared MSA-P with MSA-C and evaluated predictors of outcome. These subjects were evaluated with UMSARS I (a functional score of symptoms and ability to undertake activities of daily living), UMSARS II (neurological motor evaluation), and the Composite Autonomic Symptoms Scale (COMPASS)-select (a measure of autonomic symptoms and autonomic functional status. FINDINGS: Mean age of symptom onset was 63.4 (SD 8.57) years. Median survival from symptom onset by Kaplan-Meier analysis was 9.8 years (95% CI 8.8-10.7). Subjects with severe symptomatic autonomic failure (symptomatic orthostatic hypotension, urinary incontinence) at diagnosis had a worse prognosis, surviving 8.0 years (95% CI, 6.5-9.5, n=62) while remaining subjects survived a median of 10.3 years (95% CI, 9.3-11.4, n=113). At baseline MSA-P (n=126) and MSA-C (n=49) were not different in symptoms and function, UMSARS I, 25.2 (8.08) vs 24.6 (8.34), p=0.835; UMSARS II, 26.4 (8.77) vs 25.4 (10.51), p=0.7635; COMPASS_select), 43.5 (18.66) vs 42.8 (19.56), p=0.835. Progression, evaluated by change in UMSARS I, UMSARS II, COMPASS_select over the next 5 years, was not significantly different between MSA-P and MSA-C. Median time to death from enrollment baseline was 1.8 (95% CI, 0.9-2.7) years. INTERPRETATION: Probable MSA represents late-stage disease with short survival. Natural history of MSA-P and MSA-C are similar. Severe symptomatic autonomic failure at diagnosis is associated with worse prognosis. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health (P01 NS044233), Mayo CTSA (UL1 TR000135), the Kathy Shih Memorial Foundation, and Mayo funds.