Prediction models and risk assessment for silicosis using a retrospective cohort study among workers exposed to silica in China

This study aims to develop a prognostic risk prediction model for the development of silicosis among workers exposed to silica dust in China. The prediction model was performed by using retrospective cohort of 3,492 workers exposed to silica in an iron ore, with 33 years of follow-up. We developed a risk score system using a linear combination of the predictors weighted by the LASSO penalized Cox regression coefficients. The model’s predictive accuracy was evaluated using time-dependent ROC curves. Six predictors were selected into the final prediction model (age at entry of the cohort, mean concentration of respirable silica, net years of dust exposure, smoking, illiteracy, and no. of jobs). We classified workers into three risk groups according to the quartile (Q1, Q3) of risk score; 203 (23.28%) incident silicosis cases were derived from the high risk group (risk score ≥ 5.91), whilst only 4 (0.46%) cases were from the low risk group (risk score < 3.97). The score system was regarded as accurate given the range of AUCs (83–96%). This study developed a unique score system with a good internal validity, which provides scientific guidance to the clinicians to identify high-risk workers, thus has important cost efficient implications.