Validation of a criteria-specific long-term survival prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma patients after liver transplantation

The aim of this study was to validate a criteria-specific long-term survival prediction model (MHCAT) in a large cohort of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after liver transplantation (LT) in China. Independent risk factors in MHCAT were retrospectively analysed for HCC patients recorded in the China Liver Transplant Registry. Survival predictions for each patient were calculated using MHCAT scores and the Metroticket formula separately, and the prediction efficacy of MHCAT and Metroticket was compared using the area under ROC curve (c-statistic). A total of 1371 LTs for HCC were analysed in the study, with a median follow-up of 22.2 months (IQR 6.1–72.4 months). The proportions meeting the Milan, UCSF, Fudan and Hangzhou criteria were 34.4%, 39.7%, 44.2% and 51.9%, respectively. The c-statistics for MHCAT predictions of 3- and 5-year survival rates of HCC recipients were 0.712–0.727 and 0.726–0.741, respectively. Among these patients, 1298 LTs for HCC were ultimately selected for the comparison analysis for prediction efficacy. The c-statistic of MHCAT for predictions of 3-year survival with reference to the Milan, UCSF and Fudan criteria was significantly increased compared with that for Metroticket (p < 0.05). In conclusion, MHCAT can effectively predict long-term survival for HCC recipients after LT.