Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model

BACKGROUND: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world...

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Autores principales: Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar, Sadeghian, Marzieh, Kangavari, Mehdi, Asghari, Mehdi, Madrese, Elham, Abbasinia, Marzieh, Ahmadnezhad, Iman, Gholizadeh, Yavar
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Electronic physician 2013
Materias:
Original Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4477752/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26120405
http://dx.doi.org/10.14661/2013.698-705
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author Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar
Sadeghian, Marzieh
Kangavari, Mehdi
Asghari, Mehdi
Madrese, Elham
Abbasinia, Marzieh
Ahmadnezhad, Iman
Gholizadeh, Yavar
author_facet Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar
Sadeghian, Marzieh
Kangavari, Mehdi
Asghari, Mehdi
Madrese, Elham
Abbasinia, Marzieh
Ahmadnezhad, Iman
Gholizadeh, Yavar
author_sort Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. METHODS: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. RESULTS: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P < 0.05). Most of the accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. CONCLUSION: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year.
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spelling pubmed-44777522015-06-26 Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar Sadeghian, Marzieh Kangavari, Mehdi Asghari, Mehdi Madrese, Elham Abbasinia, Marzieh Ahmadnezhad, Iman Gholizadeh, Yavar Electron Physician Original Article BACKGROUND: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. METHODS: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. RESULTS: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P < 0.05). Most of the accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. CONCLUSION: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year. Electronic physician 2013-08-01 /pmc/articles/PMC4477752/ /pubmed/26120405 http://dx.doi.org/10.14661/2013.698-705 Text en © 2013 The Authors This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/) , which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
spellingShingle Original Article
Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar
Sadeghian, Marzieh
Kangavari, Mehdi
Asghari, Mehdi
Madrese, Elham
Abbasinia, Marzieh
Ahmadnezhad, Iman
Gholizadeh, Yavar
Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model
title Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model
title_full Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model
title_fullStr Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model
title_full_unstemmed Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model
title_short Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model
title_sort review the number of accidents in tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4477752/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26120405
http://dx.doi.org/10.14661/2013.698-705
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