Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter and incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in a cohort study: effects of total and traffic-specific air pollution

BACKGROUND: Studies investigating the link between long-term exposure to air pollution and incidence of diabetes are still scarce and results are inconsistent, possibly due to different compositions of the particle mixture. We investigate the long-term effect of traffic-specific and total particulate matter (PM) and road proximity on cumulative incidence of diabetes mellitus (mainly type 2) in a large German cohort. METHODS: We followed prospectively 3607 individuals without diabetes at baseline (2000–2003) from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study in Germany (mean follow-up time 5.1 years). Mean annual exposures to total as well as traffic-specific PM(10) and PM(2.5) at residence were estimated using a chemistry transport model (EURAD, 1 km(2) resolution). Effect estimates for an increase of 1 μg/m(3) in PM were obtained with Poisson regression adjusting for sex, age, body mass index, lifestyle factors, area-level and individual-level socio-economic status, and city. RESULTS: 331 incident cases developed. Adjusted RRs for total PM(10) and PM(2.5) were 1.05 (95 %-CI: 1.00;1.10) and 1.03 (95 %-CI: 0.95;1.12), respectively. Markedly higher point estimates were found for local traffic-specific PM with RRs of 1.36 (95 %-CI: 0.98;1.89) for PM(10) and 1.36 (95 %-CI: 0.97;1.89) for PM(2.5). Individuals living closer than 100 m to a busy road had a more than 30 % higher risk (1.37;95 %-CI: 1.04;1.81) than those living further than 200 m away. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to total PM increases type two diabetes risk in the general population, as does living close to a major road. Local traffic-specific PM was related to higher risks for type two diabetes than total PM. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12940-015-0031-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.