Biogeochemical control of marine productivity in the Mediterranean Sea during the last 50 years

The temporal dynamics of biogeochemical variables derived from a coupled 3-D model of the Mediterranean Sea are evaluated for the last 50 years (1960–2010) against independent data on fisheries catch per unit effort (CPUE) for the same time period. Concordant patterns are found in the time series of all of the biological variables (from the model and from fisheries statistics), with low values at the beginning of the series, a later increase, with maximum levels reached at the end of the 1990s, and a posterior stabilization. Spectral analysis of the annual biological time series reveals coincident low-frequency signals in all of them. The first, more energetic signal peaks around the year 2000, while the second, less energetic signal peaks near 1982. Almost identical low-frequency signals are found in the nutrient loads of the rivers and in the integrated nutrient levels in the surface marine ecosystem. Nitrate concentration shows a maximum level in 1998, with a later stabilization to present-day values, coincident with the first low-frequency signal found in the biological series. Phosphate shows maximum concentrations around 1982 and a posterior sharp decline, in concordance with the second low-frequency signal observed in the biological series. That result seems to indicate that the control of marine productivity (plankton to fish) in the Mediterranean is principally mediated through bottom-up processes that could be traced back to the characteristics of riverine discharges. The high sensitivity of CPUE time series to environmental conditions might be another indicator of the overexploitation of this marine ecosystem. KEY POINTS: Biogeochemical evolution of the Mediterranean over the past 50 years. River nutrient loads drive primary and secondary productions. Strong link between low trophic levels and fisheries;