Comparison of Noninvasive pH and Blood Lactate as Predictors of Mortality in a Swine Hemorrhagic Shock with Restricted Volume Resuscitation Model

Recent clinical studies have demonstrated that high blood lactate in the prehospital setting and poor lactate clearance in the emergency department are predictive of in-hospital mortality. This analysis of data collected from a swine model of hemorrhage and restricted volume resuscitation investigated the hypotheses that noninvasive muscle pH (pHm) and H(+) clearance would predict mortality, and the responses would be similar between pHm and lactate. Data from a set of 57 swine were analyzed over the first 2 h after controlled hemorrhage and uncontrolled splenic bleeding. Surviving animals were ones that lived for the full 5-h experimental period. Venous lactate was determined at baseline, shock, and at 30, 60, and 120 min after injury. Spectra were collected continuously from the posterior thigh using a prototype CareGuide 1100 Oximeter and pHm calculated from the spectra; H(+) concentration was determined from pHm. Lactate clearance rate was calculated from the difference in lactate concentration at 120 min and shock, and H(+) clearance was calculated in a similar manner. Comparison of the area under the receiver operator characteristic curves was used to assess prediction of survival at 5 h after injury. At 120 min after injury, lactate, lactate clearance, noninvasive pHm, and noninvasive H(+) clearance were equivalent predictors of mortality each with a receiver operator characteristic area under the curve of 0.87. Thresholds for single lactate (<3.8 mmol/L) or pHm (>7.30) determinations were found to be consistent with a resuscitation goal targeted to reverse acidosis. Continuous, noninvasive pHm monitoring may provide a substitute for lactate measurement in trauma patients, particularly in the prehospital and emergency department settings.