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Shifting Effects of Ocean Conditions on Survival and Breeding Probability of a Long-Lived Seabird
With a rapidly changing climate, there is an increasing need to predict how species will respond to changes in the physical environment. One approach is to use historic data to estimate the past influence of environmental variation on important demographic parameters and then use these relationships...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2015
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4500586/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26168050 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0132372 |
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author | Schmidt, Annie E. Dybala, Kristen E. Botsford, Louis W. Eadie, John M. Bradley, Russell W. Jahncke, Jaime |
author_facet | Schmidt, Annie E. Dybala, Kristen E. Botsford, Louis W. Eadie, John M. Bradley, Russell W. Jahncke, Jaime |
author_sort | Schmidt, Annie E. |
collection | PubMed |
description | With a rapidly changing climate, there is an increasing need to predict how species will respond to changes in the physical environment. One approach is to use historic data to estimate the past influence of environmental variation on important demographic parameters and then use these relationships to project the abundance of a population or species under future climate scenarios. However, as novel climate conditions emerge, novel species responses may also appear. In some systems, environmental conditions beyond the range of those observed during the course of most long-term ecological studies are already evident. Yet little attention has been given to how these novel conditions may be influencing previously established environment–species relationships. Here, we model the relationships between ocean conditions and the demography of a long-lived seabird, Brandt’s cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatusI), in central California and show that these relationships have changed in recent years. Beginning in 2007/2008, the response of Brandt’s cormorant, an upper trophic level predator, to ocean conditions shifted, resulting in lower than predicted survival and breeding probability. Survival was generally less variable than breeding probability and was initially best predicted by the basin-scale forcing of the El Niño Southern Oscillation rather than local ocean conditions. The shifting response of Brandt’s cormorant to ocean conditions may be just a proximate indication of altered dynamics in the food web and that important forage fish are not responding to the physical ocean environment as expected. These changing relationships have important implications for our ability to project the effects of future climate change for species and communities. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4500586 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2015 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-45005862015-07-17 Shifting Effects of Ocean Conditions on Survival and Breeding Probability of a Long-Lived Seabird Schmidt, Annie E. Dybala, Kristen E. Botsford, Louis W. Eadie, John M. Bradley, Russell W. Jahncke, Jaime PLoS One Research Article With a rapidly changing climate, there is an increasing need to predict how species will respond to changes in the physical environment. One approach is to use historic data to estimate the past influence of environmental variation on important demographic parameters and then use these relationships to project the abundance of a population or species under future climate scenarios. However, as novel climate conditions emerge, novel species responses may also appear. In some systems, environmental conditions beyond the range of those observed during the course of most long-term ecological studies are already evident. Yet little attention has been given to how these novel conditions may be influencing previously established environment–species relationships. Here, we model the relationships between ocean conditions and the demography of a long-lived seabird, Brandt’s cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatusI), in central California and show that these relationships have changed in recent years. Beginning in 2007/2008, the response of Brandt’s cormorant, an upper trophic level predator, to ocean conditions shifted, resulting in lower than predicted survival and breeding probability. Survival was generally less variable than breeding probability and was initially best predicted by the basin-scale forcing of the El Niño Southern Oscillation rather than local ocean conditions. The shifting response of Brandt’s cormorant to ocean conditions may be just a proximate indication of altered dynamics in the food web and that important forage fish are not responding to the physical ocean environment as expected. These changing relationships have important implications for our ability to project the effects of future climate change for species and communities. Public Library of Science 2015-07-13 /pmc/articles/PMC4500586/ /pubmed/26168050 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0132372 Text en © 2015 Schmidt et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Schmidt, Annie E. Dybala, Kristen E. Botsford, Louis W. Eadie, John M. Bradley, Russell W. Jahncke, Jaime Shifting Effects of Ocean Conditions on Survival and Breeding Probability of a Long-Lived Seabird |
title | Shifting Effects of Ocean Conditions on Survival and Breeding Probability of a Long-Lived Seabird |
title_full | Shifting Effects of Ocean Conditions on Survival and Breeding Probability of a Long-Lived Seabird |
title_fullStr | Shifting Effects of Ocean Conditions on Survival and Breeding Probability of a Long-Lived Seabird |
title_full_unstemmed | Shifting Effects of Ocean Conditions on Survival and Breeding Probability of a Long-Lived Seabird |
title_short | Shifting Effects of Ocean Conditions on Survival and Breeding Probability of a Long-Lived Seabird |
title_sort | shifting effects of ocean conditions on survival and breeding probability of a long-lived seabird |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4500586/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26168050 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0132372 |
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