A Clinical Parameters-Based Model Predicts Anastomotic Leakage After a Laparoscopic Total Mesorectal Excision: A Large Study With Data From China

Anastomotic leakage after colorectal surgery is a major and life-threatening complication that occurs more frequently than expected. Intraoperative judgment in predicting potential leakage has shown extremely low sensitivity and specificity. The lack of a model for predicting anastomotic leakage might explain this insufficient judgment. We aimed to propose a clinical parameters-based model to predict anastomotic leakage after laparoscopic total mesorectal excision (TME). This study was a retrospective analysis of a prospectively designed colorectal cancer dataset. In total, 1968 patients with a laparoscopic TME were enrolled from November 1, 2010, to March 20, 2014. The independent risk factors for anastomotic leakage were identified, from which the parameters-based model for leakage was developed. Anastomotic leakage was noted in 63 patients (3.2%). Male sex, a low level of anastomosis, intraoperative blood loss, diabetes, the duration time of the surgery, and low temperature were significantly associated by the bivariate analysis and the Cochran–Mantel–Haenszel test with an increased risk. From these factors, the logistic regression model identified the following 4 independent predictors: male sex (risk ratio [RR] = 1.85, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.13–4.87), diabetes (RR = 2.08, 95% CI: 1.19–5.8), a lower anastomosis level (RR = 3.41, 95% CI: 1.17–6.71), and a high volume of blood loss (RR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01–1.05). The locally weighted scatterplot smoothing regression showed an anastomosis within 5 cm from the anus and intraoperative blood loss of >100 mL as the cutoff values for a significantly increased risk of leakage. Based on these independent factors, a parameters-based model was established by the regression coefficients. The high and low-risk groups were classified according to scores of 3–5 and 0–2, with leakage rates of 8.57% and 1.66%, respectively (P < 0.001). This parameters-based model could predict the risk of anastomotic leakage following laparoscopic rectal cancer. After further validation, this model might facilitate the intraoperative recognition of high-risk patients to perform defunctional stomas.