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Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Korea
PURPOSE: South Korea has the highest incidence rate of thyroid cancer in the world, and the incidence rate continues to increase. The aim of this study was to determine the age-period-cohort effects on the incidence of thyroid cancer in Korea. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using the Korean National Cancer...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Korean Cancer Association
2015
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4506117/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25672579 http://dx.doi.org/10.4143/crt.2014.110 |
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author | Oh, Chang-Mo Jung, Kyu-Won Won, Young-Joo Shin, Aesun Kong, Hyun-Joo Lee, Jin-Soo |
author_facet | Oh, Chang-Mo Jung, Kyu-Won Won, Young-Joo Shin, Aesun Kong, Hyun-Joo Lee, Jin-Soo |
author_sort | Oh, Chang-Mo |
collection | PubMed |
description | PURPOSE: South Korea has the highest incidence rate of thyroid cancer in the world, and the incidence rate continues to increase. The aim of this study was to determine the age-period-cohort effects on the incidence of thyroid cancer in Korea. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using the Korean National Cancer registry database, age-standardized incidence rates and annual percent changes (APCs) in thyroid cancer according to sex and histologic type were analyzed between 1997 and 2011. Age-period-cohort models were applied using an intrinsic estimator method according to sex. RESULTS: In both men and women, the incidence of thyroid cancer showed a sharp increase from 1997 through 2011. Among the histologic types, papillary carcinoma showed the greatest increase, with APCs of 25.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 22.7% to 27.5%) in men and 23.7% (95% CI, 21.9% to 25.5%) in women, whereas anaplastic carcinoma did not show a significant increase in either sex. An increase in overall thyroid cancer incidence over time was observed in all birth cohorts. An age-period-cohort model indicated a steeply increasing period effect, which increased prominently from 1997 to 2011 in both men and women. The age effect showed an inverted U-shaped trend. The cohort effect tended to show a slight increase or remain constant from 1952 to 1977, followed by a decrease. CONCLUSION: The period effect can explain the sharp increase in thyroid cancer incidence, strongly suggesting the role of thyroid screening. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4506117 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2015 |
publisher | Korean Cancer Association |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-45061172015-07-21 Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Korea Oh, Chang-Mo Jung, Kyu-Won Won, Young-Joo Shin, Aesun Kong, Hyun-Joo Lee, Jin-Soo Cancer Res Treat Original Article PURPOSE: South Korea has the highest incidence rate of thyroid cancer in the world, and the incidence rate continues to increase. The aim of this study was to determine the age-period-cohort effects on the incidence of thyroid cancer in Korea. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using the Korean National Cancer registry database, age-standardized incidence rates and annual percent changes (APCs) in thyroid cancer according to sex and histologic type were analyzed between 1997 and 2011. Age-period-cohort models were applied using an intrinsic estimator method according to sex. RESULTS: In both men and women, the incidence of thyroid cancer showed a sharp increase from 1997 through 2011. Among the histologic types, papillary carcinoma showed the greatest increase, with APCs of 25.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 22.7% to 27.5%) in men and 23.7% (95% CI, 21.9% to 25.5%) in women, whereas anaplastic carcinoma did not show a significant increase in either sex. An increase in overall thyroid cancer incidence over time was observed in all birth cohorts. An age-period-cohort model indicated a steeply increasing period effect, which increased prominently from 1997 to 2011 in both men and women. The age effect showed an inverted U-shaped trend. The cohort effect tended to show a slight increase or remain constant from 1952 to 1977, followed by a decrease. CONCLUSION: The period effect can explain the sharp increase in thyroid cancer incidence, strongly suggesting the role of thyroid screening. Korean Cancer Association 2015-07 2014-12-02 /pmc/articles/PMC4506117/ /pubmed/25672579 http://dx.doi.org/10.4143/crt.2014.110 Text en Copyright © 2015 by the Korean Cancer Association This is an Open-Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Original Article Oh, Chang-Mo Jung, Kyu-Won Won, Young-Joo Shin, Aesun Kong, Hyun-Joo Lee, Jin-Soo Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Korea |
title | Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Korea |
title_full | Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Korea |
title_fullStr | Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Korea |
title_full_unstemmed | Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Korea |
title_short | Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Korea |
title_sort | age-period-cohort analysis of thyroid cancer incidence in korea |
topic | Original Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4506117/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25672579 http://dx.doi.org/10.4143/crt.2014.110 |
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