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Effects of Climate and Rodent Factors on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chongqing, China, 1997–2008
China has the highest global incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), constituting 90% of the cases in the world. Chongqing, located in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, has been experiencing differences in the occurrence of HFRS from 1997 to 2008. The current study was designed t...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2015
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4507865/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26193359 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0133218 |
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author | Bai, Yuntao Xu, Zhiguang Lu, Bo Sun, Qinghua Tang, Wenge Liu, Xiaobo Yang, Weizhong Xu, Xinyi Liu, Qiyong |
author_facet | Bai, Yuntao Xu, Zhiguang Lu, Bo Sun, Qinghua Tang, Wenge Liu, Xiaobo Yang, Weizhong Xu, Xinyi Liu, Qiyong |
author_sort | Bai, Yuntao |
collection | PubMed |
description | China has the highest global incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), constituting 90% of the cases in the world. Chongqing, located in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, has been experiencing differences in the occurrence of HFRS from 1997 to 2008. The current study was designed to explore the effects of climate and rodent factors on the transmission of HFRS in Chongqing. Data on monthly HFRS cases, rodent strains, and climatic factors were collected from 1997 to 2008. Spatio-temporal analysis indicated that most HFRS cases were clustered in central Chongqing and that the incidence of HFRS decreased from 1997 to 2008. Poisson regression models showed that temperature (with lagged months of 0 and 5) and rainfall (with 2 lagged months) were key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS. A zero-inflated negative binomial model revealed that rodent density was also significantly associated with the occurrence of HFRS in the Changshou district. The monthly trend in HFRS incidence was positively associated with rodent density and rainfall and negatively associated with temperature. Possible mechanisms are proposed through which construction of the dam influenced the incidence of HFRS in Chongqing. The findings of this study may contribute to the development of early warning systems for the control and prevention of HFRS in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4507865 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2015 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-45078652015-07-24 Effects of Climate and Rodent Factors on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chongqing, China, 1997–2008 Bai, Yuntao Xu, Zhiguang Lu, Bo Sun, Qinghua Tang, Wenge Liu, Xiaobo Yang, Weizhong Xu, Xinyi Liu, Qiyong PLoS One Research Article China has the highest global incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), constituting 90% of the cases in the world. Chongqing, located in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, has been experiencing differences in the occurrence of HFRS from 1997 to 2008. The current study was designed to explore the effects of climate and rodent factors on the transmission of HFRS in Chongqing. Data on monthly HFRS cases, rodent strains, and climatic factors were collected from 1997 to 2008. Spatio-temporal analysis indicated that most HFRS cases were clustered in central Chongqing and that the incidence of HFRS decreased from 1997 to 2008. Poisson regression models showed that temperature (with lagged months of 0 and 5) and rainfall (with 2 lagged months) were key climatic factors contributing to the transmission of HFRS. A zero-inflated negative binomial model revealed that rodent density was also significantly associated with the occurrence of HFRS in the Changshou district. The monthly trend in HFRS incidence was positively associated with rodent density and rainfall and negatively associated with temperature. Possible mechanisms are proposed through which construction of the dam influenced the incidence of HFRS in Chongqing. The findings of this study may contribute to the development of early warning systems for the control and prevention of HFRS in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region. Public Library of Science 2015-07-20 /pmc/articles/PMC4507865/ /pubmed/26193359 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0133218 Text en © 2015 Bai et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Bai, Yuntao Xu, Zhiguang Lu, Bo Sun, Qinghua Tang, Wenge Liu, Xiaobo Yang, Weizhong Xu, Xinyi Liu, Qiyong Effects of Climate and Rodent Factors on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chongqing, China, 1997–2008 |
title | Effects of Climate and Rodent Factors on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chongqing, China, 1997–2008 |
title_full | Effects of Climate and Rodent Factors on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chongqing, China, 1997–2008 |
title_fullStr | Effects of Climate and Rodent Factors on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chongqing, China, 1997–2008 |
title_full_unstemmed | Effects of Climate and Rodent Factors on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chongqing, China, 1997–2008 |
title_short | Effects of Climate and Rodent Factors on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Chongqing, China, 1997–2008 |
title_sort | effects of climate and rodent factors on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in chongqing, china, 1997–2008 |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4507865/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26193359 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0133218 |
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