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The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations

Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Posner, A, Hesse, M, St Cyr, O C
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2014
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4508931/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26213516
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013SW001007
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author Posner, A
Hesse, M
St Cyr, O C
author_facet Posner, A
Hesse, M
St Cyr, O C
author_sort Posner, A
collection PubMed
description Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations. KEY POINTS: Manuscript assesses current and near-future space weather assets. Current assets unreliable for forecasting of severe geomagnetic storms. Near-future assets will not improve the situation.
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spelling pubmed-45089312015-07-24 The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations Posner, A Hesse, M St Cyr, O C Space Weather Research Articles Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations. KEY POINTS: Manuscript assesses current and near-future space weather assets. Current assets unreliable for forecasting of severe geomagnetic storms. Near-future assets will not improve the situation. Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2014-04 2014-04-15 /pmc/articles/PMC4508931/ /pubmed/26213516 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013SW001007 Text en ©2014. The Authors. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
spellingShingle Research Articles
Posner, A
Hesse, M
St Cyr, O C
The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations
title The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations
title_full The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations
title_fullStr The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations
title_full_unstemmed The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations
title_short The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations
title_sort main pillar: assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations
topic Research Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4508931/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26213516
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013SW001007
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