Smoking, Smoking Cessation, and the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes among Japanese Adults: Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study

AIMS: To examine the association of smoking status, smoking intensity, and smoking cessation with the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) using a large database. METHODS: The present study included 53,930 Japanese employees, aged 15 to 83 years, who received health check-up and did not have diabetes at baseline. Diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose ≥126 mg/dl, random plasma glucose ≥200 mg/dl, HbA1c ≥6.5% (≥48 mmol/mol), or receiving medication for diabetes. Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to investigate the association between smoking and the risk of diabetes. RESULTS: During 3.9 years of median follow-up, 2,441 (4.5%) individuals developed T2D. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) for diabetes were 1 (reference), 1.16 (1.04 to 1.30) and 1.34 (1.22 to 1.48) for never smokers, former smokers, and current smokers, respectively. Diabetes risk increased with increasing numbers of cigarette consumption among current smokers (P for trend <0.001). Although the relative risk of diabetes was greater among subjects with lower BMIs (< 23 kg/m(2)), attributable risk was greater in subjects with higher BMIs (≥ 23 kg/m(2)). Compared with individuals who had never smoked, former smokers who quit less than 5 years, 5 to 9 years, and 10 years or more exhibited hazards ratios for diabetes of 1.36 (1.14 to 1.62), 1.23 (1.01 to 1.51), and 1.02 (0.85 to 1.23), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that cigarette smoking is associated with an increased risk of T2D, which may decrease to the level of a never smoker after 10 years of smoking cessation.