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Historical view and future demand for knee arthroplasty in Sweden

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The incidence of knee osteoarthritis will most likely increase. We analyzed historical trends in the incidence of knee arthroplasty in Sweden between 1975 and 2013, in order to be able to provide projections of future demand. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We obtained information on a...

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Autores principales: Nemes, Szilárd, Rolfson, Ola, W-Dahl, Annette, Garellick, Göran, Sundberg, Martin, Kärrholm, Johan, Robertsson, Otto
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Informa Healthcare 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4513596/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25806653
http://dx.doi.org/10.3109/17453674.2015.1034608
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author Nemes, Szilárd
Rolfson, Ola
W-Dahl, Annette
Garellick, Göran
Sundberg, Martin
Kärrholm, Johan
Robertsson, Otto
author_facet Nemes, Szilárd
Rolfson, Ola
W-Dahl, Annette
Garellick, Göran
Sundberg, Martin
Kärrholm, Johan
Robertsson, Otto
author_sort Nemes, Szilárd
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The incidence of knee osteoarthritis will most likely increase. We analyzed historical trends in the incidence of knee arthroplasty in Sweden between 1975 and 2013, in order to be able to provide projections of future demand. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We obtained information on all knee arthroplasties in Sweden in the period 1975–2013 from the Swedish Knee Arthroplasty Register, and used public domain data from Statistics Sweden on the evolution of and forecasts for the Swedish population. We forecast the incidence, presuming the existence of a maximum incidence. RESULTS: We found that the incidence of knee arthroplasty will continue to increase until a projected upper incidence level of about 469 total knee replacements per 10(5) Swedish residents aged 40 years and older is reached around the year 2130. In 2020, the estimated incidence of total knee arthroplasties per 10(5) Swedish residents aged 40 years and older will be 334 (95% prediction interval (PI): 281–374) and in 2030 it will be 382 (PI: 308–441). Using officially forecast population growth data, around 17,500 operations would be expected to be performed in 2020 and around 21,700 would be expected to be performed in 2030. INTERPRETATION: Today’s levels of knee arthroplasty are well below the expected maximum incidence, and we expect a continued annual increase in the total number of knee arthroplasties performed.
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spelling pubmed-45135962015-08-10 Historical view and future demand for knee arthroplasty in Sweden Nemes, Szilárd Rolfson, Ola W-Dahl, Annette Garellick, Göran Sundberg, Martin Kärrholm, Johan Robertsson, Otto Acta Orthop Knee BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The incidence of knee osteoarthritis will most likely increase. We analyzed historical trends in the incidence of knee arthroplasty in Sweden between 1975 and 2013, in order to be able to provide projections of future demand. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We obtained information on all knee arthroplasties in Sweden in the period 1975–2013 from the Swedish Knee Arthroplasty Register, and used public domain data from Statistics Sweden on the evolution of and forecasts for the Swedish population. We forecast the incidence, presuming the existence of a maximum incidence. RESULTS: We found that the incidence of knee arthroplasty will continue to increase until a projected upper incidence level of about 469 total knee replacements per 10(5) Swedish residents aged 40 years and older is reached around the year 2130. In 2020, the estimated incidence of total knee arthroplasties per 10(5) Swedish residents aged 40 years and older will be 334 (95% prediction interval (PI): 281–374) and in 2030 it will be 382 (PI: 308–441). Using officially forecast population growth data, around 17,500 operations would be expected to be performed in 2020 and around 21,700 would be expected to be performed in 2030. INTERPRETATION: Today’s levels of knee arthroplasty are well below the expected maximum incidence, and we expect a continued annual increase in the total number of knee arthroplasties performed. Informa Healthcare 2015-08 2015-07-21 /pmc/articles/PMC4513596/ /pubmed/25806653 http://dx.doi.org/10.3109/17453674.2015.1034608 Text en Copyright: © Nordic Orthopaedic Federation http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the CC-BY-NC-ND 3.0 License which permits users to download and share the article for non-commercial purposes, so long as the article is reproduced in the whole without changes, and provided the original source is credited.
spellingShingle Knee
Nemes, Szilárd
Rolfson, Ola
W-Dahl, Annette
Garellick, Göran
Sundberg, Martin
Kärrholm, Johan
Robertsson, Otto
Historical view and future demand for knee arthroplasty in Sweden
title Historical view and future demand for knee arthroplasty in Sweden
title_full Historical view and future demand for knee arthroplasty in Sweden
title_fullStr Historical view and future demand for knee arthroplasty in Sweden
title_full_unstemmed Historical view and future demand for knee arthroplasty in Sweden
title_short Historical view and future demand for knee arthroplasty in Sweden
title_sort historical view and future demand for knee arthroplasty in sweden
topic Knee
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4513596/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25806653
http://dx.doi.org/10.3109/17453674.2015.1034608
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