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The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere
Since the slowing of the trend of increasing surface air temperature (SAT) in the late 1990 s, intense interest and debate have arisen concerning the contribution of human activities to the warming observed in previous decades. Although several explanations have been proposed for the warming-trend s...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group
2015
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4519735/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26223491 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep12669 |
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author | Guan, Xiaodan Huang, Jianping Guo, Ruixia Lin, Pu |
author_facet | Guan, Xiaodan Huang, Jianping Guo, Ruixia Lin, Pu |
author_sort | Guan, Xiaodan |
collection | PubMed |
description | Since the slowing of the trend of increasing surface air temperature (SAT) in the late 1990 s, intense interest and debate have arisen concerning the contribution of human activities to the warming observed in previous decades. Although several explanations have been proposed for the warming-trend slowdown (WTS), none has been generally accepted. We investigate the WTS using a recently developed methodology that can successfully identify and separate the dynamically induced and radiatively forced SAT changes from raw SAT data. The dynamically induced SAT changes exhibited an obvious cooling effect relative to the warming effect of the adjusted SAT in the hiatus process. A correlation analysis suggests that the changes are dominated primarily by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Our results confirm that dynamically induced variability caused the WTS. The radiatively forced SAT changes are determined mainly by anthropogenic forcing, indicating the warming influence of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which reached levels of 400 ppm during the hiatus period. Therefore, the global SAT will not remain permanently neutral. The increased radiatively forced SAT will be amplified by increased dynamically induced SAT when the natural mode returns to a warming phase in the next period. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4519735 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2015 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-45197352015-08-05 The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere Guan, Xiaodan Huang, Jianping Guo, Ruixia Lin, Pu Sci Rep Article Since the slowing of the trend of increasing surface air temperature (SAT) in the late 1990 s, intense interest and debate have arisen concerning the contribution of human activities to the warming observed in previous decades. Although several explanations have been proposed for the warming-trend slowdown (WTS), none has been generally accepted. We investigate the WTS using a recently developed methodology that can successfully identify and separate the dynamically induced and radiatively forced SAT changes from raw SAT data. The dynamically induced SAT changes exhibited an obvious cooling effect relative to the warming effect of the adjusted SAT in the hiatus process. A correlation analysis suggests that the changes are dominated primarily by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Our results confirm that dynamically induced variability caused the WTS. The radiatively forced SAT changes are determined mainly by anthropogenic forcing, indicating the warming influence of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which reached levels of 400 ppm during the hiatus period. Therefore, the global SAT will not remain permanently neutral. The increased radiatively forced SAT will be amplified by increased dynamically induced SAT when the natural mode returns to a warming phase in the next period. Nature Publishing Group 2015-07-30 /pmc/articles/PMC4519735/ /pubmed/26223491 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep12669 Text en Copyright © 2015, Macmillan Publishers Limited http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
spellingShingle | Article Guan, Xiaodan Huang, Jianping Guo, Ruixia Lin, Pu The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere |
title | The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere |
title_full | The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere |
title_fullStr | The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere |
title_full_unstemmed | The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere |
title_short | The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere |
title_sort | role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the northern hemisphere |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4519735/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26223491 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep12669 |
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