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Atlantic hurricane activity during the last millennium

Hurricanes are a persistent socio-economic hazard for countries situated in and around the Main Development Region (MDR) of Atlantic tropical cyclones. Climate-model simulations have attributed their interdecadal variability to changes in solar and volcanic activity, Saharan dust flux, anthropogenic...

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Autores principales: Burn, Michael J., Palmer, Suzanne E.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4525293/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26243340
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep12838
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author Burn, Michael J.
Palmer, Suzanne E.
author_facet Burn, Michael J.
Palmer, Suzanne E.
author_sort Burn, Michael J.
collection PubMed
description Hurricanes are a persistent socio-economic hazard for countries situated in and around the Main Development Region (MDR) of Atlantic tropical cyclones. Climate-model simulations have attributed their interdecadal variability to changes in solar and volcanic activity, Saharan dust flux, anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions and heat transport within the global ocean conveyor belt. However, the attribution of hurricane activity to specific forcing factors is hampered by the short observational record of Atlantic storms. Here, we present the Extended Hurricane Activity (EHA) index, the first empirical reconstruction of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity for the last millennium, derived from a high-resolution lake sediment geochemical record from Jamaica. The EHA correlates significantly with decadal changes in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs; r = 0.68; 1854–2008), the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index (ACE; r = 0.90; 1851–2010), and two annually-resolved coral-based SST reconstructions (1773–2008) from within the MDR. Our results corroborate evidence for the increasing trend of hurricane activity during the Industrial Era; however, we show that contemporary activity has not exceeded the range of natural climate variability exhibited during the last millennium.
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spelling pubmed-45252932015-08-06 Atlantic hurricane activity during the last millennium Burn, Michael J. Palmer, Suzanne E. Sci Rep Article Hurricanes are a persistent socio-economic hazard for countries situated in and around the Main Development Region (MDR) of Atlantic tropical cyclones. Climate-model simulations have attributed their interdecadal variability to changes in solar and volcanic activity, Saharan dust flux, anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions and heat transport within the global ocean conveyor belt. However, the attribution of hurricane activity to specific forcing factors is hampered by the short observational record of Atlantic storms. Here, we present the Extended Hurricane Activity (EHA) index, the first empirical reconstruction of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity for the last millennium, derived from a high-resolution lake sediment geochemical record from Jamaica. The EHA correlates significantly with decadal changes in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs; r = 0.68; 1854–2008), the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index (ACE; r = 0.90; 1851–2010), and two annually-resolved coral-based SST reconstructions (1773–2008) from within the MDR. Our results corroborate evidence for the increasing trend of hurricane activity during the Industrial Era; however, we show that contemporary activity has not exceeded the range of natural climate variability exhibited during the last millennium. Nature Publishing Group 2015-08-05 /pmc/articles/PMC4525293/ /pubmed/26243340 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep12838 Text en Copyright © 2015, Macmillan Publishers Limited http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
spellingShingle Article
Burn, Michael J.
Palmer, Suzanne E.
Atlantic hurricane activity during the last millennium
title Atlantic hurricane activity during the last millennium
title_full Atlantic hurricane activity during the last millennium
title_fullStr Atlantic hurricane activity during the last millennium
title_full_unstemmed Atlantic hurricane activity during the last millennium
title_short Atlantic hurricane activity during the last millennium
title_sort atlantic hurricane activity during the last millennium
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4525293/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26243340
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep12838
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