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Confounding dynamic risk taking propensity with a momentum prognostic strategy: the case of the Columbia Card Task (CCT)
Figner et al. (2009) developed the Columbia Card Task (CCT) to measure risk-taking attitudes. This tool consists of two versions: in the COLD version the decision maker needs to state in advance how many cards (out of 32) they want to turn over (so called static risk taking), in the HOT version they...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2015
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4528171/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26300799 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01073 |
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author | Markiewicz, Łukasz Kubińska, Elżbieta Tyszka, Tadeusz |
author_facet | Markiewicz, Łukasz Kubińska, Elżbieta Tyszka, Tadeusz |
author_sort | Markiewicz, Łukasz |
collection | PubMed |
description | Figner et al. (2009) developed the Columbia Card Task (CCT) to measure risk-taking attitudes. This tool consists of two versions: in the COLD version the decision maker needs to state in advance how many cards (out of 32) they want to turn over (so called static risk taking), in the HOT version they have the possibility of turning over all 32 cards one-by-one until they decide to finish (dynamic risk taking). We argue that the HOT version confounds an individual’s willingness to accept risk with their beliefs in trend continuation vs. trend reversal in a prognostic task. In two experimental studies we show that people believing in trend continuation (momentum subjects) turn over more cards than those believing in trend reversal (contrarians) in the HOT version of the task. However, this is not the case in the COLD version. Thus, we provide evidence that, when considered as a dynamic risk propensity measure, the number of turned over cards in the HOT version of the CCT is a contaminated measure and reflects two phenomena: (1) risk preference and (2) the decision-maker’s belief in trend continuation. We speculate that other dynamic risk taking measures can also be biased by a momentum strategy. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-4528171 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2015 |
publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-45281712015-08-21 Confounding dynamic risk taking propensity with a momentum prognostic strategy: the case of the Columbia Card Task (CCT) Markiewicz, Łukasz Kubińska, Elżbieta Tyszka, Tadeusz Front Psychol Psychology Figner et al. (2009) developed the Columbia Card Task (CCT) to measure risk-taking attitudes. This tool consists of two versions: in the COLD version the decision maker needs to state in advance how many cards (out of 32) they want to turn over (so called static risk taking), in the HOT version they have the possibility of turning over all 32 cards one-by-one until they decide to finish (dynamic risk taking). We argue that the HOT version confounds an individual’s willingness to accept risk with their beliefs in trend continuation vs. trend reversal in a prognostic task. In two experimental studies we show that people believing in trend continuation (momentum subjects) turn over more cards than those believing in trend reversal (contrarians) in the HOT version of the task. However, this is not the case in the COLD version. Thus, we provide evidence that, when considered as a dynamic risk propensity measure, the number of turned over cards in the HOT version of the CCT is a contaminated measure and reflects two phenomena: (1) risk preference and (2) the decision-maker’s belief in trend continuation. We speculate that other dynamic risk taking measures can also be biased by a momentum strategy. Frontiers Media S.A. 2015-08-07 /pmc/articles/PMC4528171/ /pubmed/26300799 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01073 Text en Copyright © 2015 Markiewicz, Kubińska and Tyszka. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
spellingShingle | Psychology Markiewicz, Łukasz Kubińska, Elżbieta Tyszka, Tadeusz Confounding dynamic risk taking propensity with a momentum prognostic strategy: the case of the Columbia Card Task (CCT) |
title | Confounding dynamic risk taking propensity with a momentum prognostic strategy: the case of the Columbia Card Task (CCT) |
title_full | Confounding dynamic risk taking propensity with a momentum prognostic strategy: the case of the Columbia Card Task (CCT) |
title_fullStr | Confounding dynamic risk taking propensity with a momentum prognostic strategy: the case of the Columbia Card Task (CCT) |
title_full_unstemmed | Confounding dynamic risk taking propensity with a momentum prognostic strategy: the case of the Columbia Card Task (CCT) |
title_short | Confounding dynamic risk taking propensity with a momentum prognostic strategy: the case of the Columbia Card Task (CCT) |
title_sort | confounding dynamic risk taking propensity with a momentum prognostic strategy: the case of the columbia card task (cct) |
topic | Psychology |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4528171/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26300799 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01073 |
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