Predictors of Pegylated Interferon Alpha and Ribavirin Efficacy and Long-Term Assessment of Relapse in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis C: A One-Center Experience From China

BACKGROUND: Sustained virological response (SVR) and virological relapse maintain pivotal roles in the management of chronic hepatitis C (CHC); however, there is little data regarding the long-term outcomes of patients with CHC in China. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate the predictive factors of therapeutic effect and viral relapse in patients who achieved end-of-treatment response (ETR). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed clinical, biochemical and virological data of 169 adult patients with CHC from China who were not treated with pegylated interferon-alpha (PEG IFN-α) and ribavirin, of which 142 achieved ETR and with a follow-up period ranging from six months to six years. Statistical analysis was performed by SPSS 20.0. RESULTS: Of the 169 patients, 124 (73.4%) achieved SVR and 23 (16.2%) experienced relapses post-therapy in cases of ETR patients. We considered sex, age, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate transaminase, baseline hepatitis C virus RNA level, HCV genotypes, IL28B rs12979860 genotype, rapid virological response (RVR), and early virological response (EVR). For antiviral effect in patients with CHC, HCV genotypes (2, 3) (χ(2) = 11.285, P = 0.001), IL28B genotype (rs12979860 CC) (χ(2) = 16.552, P < 0.001), RVR (χ(2) = 37.339, P < 0.001), and EVR (χ(2) = 70.265, P < 0.001) were significantly correlated with achieving SVR. For ETR patients with long-term follow-up, the relapse rate within six months was significantly higher than within other periods during six-year follow-up (χ(2) = 7.792, P = 0.005). Relapse was virtually not observed after therapy ceased for 48 weeks. The IL28B genotype (rs12979860 CT/TT) (OR = 0.102; 95% CI, 0.031-0.339; P < 0.001), lower RVR (OR = 0.239; 95% CI, 0.078-0.738; P = 0.013), and EVR (OR = 0.102; 95% CI, 0.016-0.661; P = 0.017) were independent risk factors for relapse. CONCLUSIONS: Our study comprehensively explored the predictive factors of therapeutic effect of administered drugs and analyzed viral relapse during a six-months to six-year follow-up period from China. The SVR may not be the perfect endpoint of HCV therapy in Chinese people; we recommend 48 weeks after treatment withdrawal as the suitable time point.